[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Widely scattered convection is
noted from 00N to 03N between 19W and 29W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 02S between 29W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front exited the Gulf of Mexico overnight and has stalled
across NW Cuba where it will dissipate today. A 1023 mb high is
along the eastern seaboard and extends a ridge SW to the central
Gulf. This is promoting fresh SE return flow across the west
central and NW Gulf this morning. centered over the NE Gulf near
30N87W. Surface ridging and dry air is over the Gulf. Widely scattered
moderate convection is over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
adjacent waters, while broken multi layered clouds and a few
showers are embedded in the SE wind flow across the NW Gulf.

A new cold front will move into the northern Gulf Wed evening,
and reach from the Florida Big Bend to northeastern Mexico Thu
morning. The front will weaken as it reaches from SW Florida to
near 23.5N90W to western Bay of Campeche Fri morning, then reach
from NW Cuba to just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula Sat
morning. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the
front Fri night through Sat.

Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico and Central America
will produce periods of reduced visibility over the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a weak cold front extends from central Cuba to
the Yucatan Channel, where it has stalled and will dissipate
today. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted
over the N Yucatan Peninsula N of 19N. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is over the coastal waters of Panama
and Costa Rica south of 11N and west of 81W Colombia. Fresh to
strong tradewinds with seas 7-10 ft prevail across the waters
south of 14.5N across the waters of Colombia and western
Venezuela.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to just east of
the NW Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong tradewinds over the
south-central Caribbean today before the high shifts ENE ahead of
a west Atlantic cold front, allowing for a modest weakening of
winds Wed through Fri.

Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to
produce periods reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras for
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W through the
central Bahamas to NW Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front from the Bahamas
northeastward across the open Atlantic. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds generally prevail west of the front. A 1023 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 29N41W producing fair weather east of
60W. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds N of 30N just
ahead of the front.

The portion of the front east of the Bahamas will continue moving
eastward and gradually become aligned east to west along 25N
through Wed night. Another cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters Thu
evening preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds beginning Wed
evening. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the Florida Keys
Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it reaches from 31N68W to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba Sat morning.

$$
Stripling
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