[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290551
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to
02N25W, 05N33W, 04N37W. A surface trough is along 05N39W,
01N40W, to the Equator along 42W. The rest of the ITCZ is along
01N44W 04N50W, to the coast of Brazil near 04N41W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through east Texas into south
central Texas, across 27N/28N in northern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 25N to 28N between 98W and
101W, which covers parts of the Deep South of Texas, NE Mexico,
and the coastal waters of these areas of Texas and Mexico.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N northward
between 89W and 92W in SE Louisiana and the coastal waters.
Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening but remnant
precipitation is apparent from Louisiana to Mississippi to
Alabama.

High pressure, extending south-southwestward from the eastern
U.S.A., to the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, will shift
eastward through Wednesday, in advance of an approaching cold
front. This cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday afternoon. The front will reach from New Orleans to
near 26N93W and to northeastern Mexico on Wednesday evening. The
front will extend from the Florida Big Bend region to near
25N89W and to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The
front will weaken as it reaches from SW Florida to near 23.5N90W
to the western Bay of Campeche on Friday morning, then reach
from NW Cuba to just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday morning. It is likely that a squall line with strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this front across the
NW Gulf of Mexico, and in parts of the north central Gulf of
Mexico early on Wednesday. High pressure will settle into the NE
Gulf, behind the front, from Friday night through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Westerly wind flow covers the area from 70W
westward. West-to-northwest wind flow covers the area from 70W
eastward. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 72W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N
Colombia.

High pressure, that is moving across the NW Atlantic Ocean, will
shift NE through Friday. This will allow for diminished
tradewinds across the E and central Caribbean Sea from Thursday
through Saturday. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America is reducing the visibility in the western Gulf of
Honduras. It is possible that some improvement of these
conditions may occur by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N57W to 27N65W, and to 24N73W. The
front becomes dissipating stationary from 24N73W, across the
Bahamas, and across NW Cuba, to 22N84W in the Yucatan Channel.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate are within 120 nm on either side of the
frontal boundary. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, ending
at 29/0000 UTC, is: 0.52 in Bermuda.

The current Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary will become
stationary and dissipate on Wednesday. Another cold front will
move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast, and into the NW forecast
waters, on Thursday evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds,
beginning on Wednesday evening, will precede the cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms also will precede this
front. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the Florida Keys
on Friday morning. The front will weaken as it reaches from
31N68W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba on Saturday
morning. The front will become weakening stationary from near
27N65W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba on Sunday.

$$
mt
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