[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02.5N18W to 00N33W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 01N-06N between 06W-16W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 00N-06.5N between 27W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Everglades
to near 23N92.5W to the central Bay of Campeche. Broken low to
middle level clouds and shallow convection is noted north of
the front across the central Gulf, while scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted across much of the central Bay
of Campeche south of 20N, on both sides of the boundary. Drier
air prevails behind the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are
north and west of the front, with seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

The cold front will move across the southeastern Gulf and exit
the basin area by this afternoon. Another cold front will
move into the northern Gulf Wed evening, and reach from the
Florida Big Bend to northeastern Mexico Thu morning. The western
part of the front will become stationary and weaken through late
Thu night, while the rest of the front will weaken as it exits
the SE Gulf late Fri. Weak high pressure will build across the
area in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail over the central Caribbean
south of 15N and across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection is over the waters of western Panama south of
10N. Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind flow
across the east and northeast Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-10 ft
range over the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through early Tue before weakening. Strong east
to southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras early this morning
will diminish over the next few days. A weak cold front will sink
across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel today before dissipating
Tue. Northerly swell will continue to subside across the Tropical
N Atlantic waters today. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America will produce periods of reduced visibility over the Gulf
of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to just south
of Palm Beach, Florida to the Florida Everglades. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east of the front to
the north of 28N. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N49W. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the
cold front across the northwest waters, where seas till build to
6-8 ft shortly after sunrise. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere across the W Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
over the tropical waters S of 20N. Over the open waters, seas are
in the 4-6 ft range S of 20N, and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE across the offshore waters and reach
from 31N70W to the coast of NW Cuba late this morning before
stalling and dissipating from 28N65W to w central Cuba Tue
morning. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward along
31N. Yet another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds beginning
Wed. This front is expected to reach from near 31N76W to east-
central Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it reaches from the
central Bahamas to NW Cuba Sat.

$$
Stripling
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