[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271617
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 01N-07N between 12W-18W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-06N between
25W-33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also
seen from 05S-05N between 36W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N80W to
23N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the
central Bay of Campeche, south of 20N between 92W-95.5W.
Isolated showers are in the Florida Straits. Surface ridging
and dry air is over the northern Gulf of Mexico, behind the
front.

The weak cold front will move slowly southward across the SE
Gulf, exiting the Gulf this afternoon. Another cold front will
move into the northern Gulf Wed evening, and reach from the
Florida Big Bend to northeastern Mexico Thu morning. The western
part of the front will become stationary and weaken through late
Thu night, while the rest of the front will weaken as it exits
the SE Gulf late Fri. Weak high pressure will build across the
area in the wake of this front. Smoke from fires over SE Mexico
and northern Central America may reduce visibility over the Bay
of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front that extends from Andros Island Bahamas through
the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche will sink
across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel this afternoon and evening
before dissipating Tue. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are currently occurring ahead of the front, over western Cuba
and the NW Caribbean, mainly north of 20N. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean, mainly
south of 11N and west of 80W, due to the east Pacific trough.
Similar convection is seen over Costa Rica and the NW coast of
Panama. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds near the
coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-76.5W. Fresh trades
are elsewhere over the Caribbean south of 17.5N and east of
81W. Gentle winds are over the NW Caribbean north of 17.5N
and west of 79W.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue before gradually weakening
Wed through Fri.  Smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America will continue to reduce visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to Andros
Island Bahamas and through the Florida Straits to 23.5N84W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are along and within 60 nm ahead
of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds on both
sides of the front north of 28N, with moderate winds south of
28N. Farther east, a 1025 mb surface high, currently centered
near 29N47W, is spreading ridging across the remainder of the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

For the forecast, the cold front over the west Atlantic will
reach from near 31N63W to 25N70W and stationary to central
Cuba early Tue. The cold front portion will shift east of 65W
Tue evening, while the stationary part will gradually dissipate
through Wed. Another cold front will move off the southeastern
U.S. coast Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds
beginning Wed. The front will reach from near 31N76W to
east-central Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it reaches from
the central Bahamas to NW Cuba Sat. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front.

$$
Hagen
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