[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM Mon Apr 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 00N-09N between 06W-14W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 27W-34W, and from
01S-04S between 35W-40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 00N-07N between 42W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/0300 UTC a cold front extends across the basin from
Jupiter Florida near 27N80W to  Marco Island Florida near 26N82W
to 23N90W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 19N96W. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers over S Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N
between 78W-82W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of
the front. Drier air prevails behind the cold front. Moderate to
fresh winds are west of the front, with light to gentle winds
east of the front. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of the
front, and 1-3 ft east of the front.

The cold front will move slowly SE across the eastern Gulf
through tonight, then exit the area on Mon morning. Another cold
front will move into the northern Gulf Wed afternoon, reach from
the Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W and to near northeastern
Mexico early Thu. The western part of the front will become
stationary and weaken through late Thu night, while the rest of
the front will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Fri. Weak high
pressure will build across the area in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to
16N90W. Scattered moderate convection is over N Guatemala,
Belize, and W Honduras. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere in the western Caribbean.
Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind flow. Seas
are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean and
4-6 ft elsewhere.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong east to
southeast winds will pulse tonight over the Gulf of Honduras. A
weak cold front will sink across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel
Mon through Mon night before dissipating Tue. Northerly
subsiding swell will propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic
waters through Mon. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Jupiter
Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N47W. Gentle to moderate W winds are behind the cold front.
Moderate to fresh wind speeds prevail elsewhere across the
W Atlantic. Light to gentle winds are near the high center.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the tropical waters S of
20N. Isolated showers are embedded within this tradewind flow.
Over the open waters, seas are in the 4-6 ft range S of 20N,
and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE across the offshore waters and reach
from 31N70W to the coast of NW Cuba Mon morning before stalling
and dissipating from 28N65W to Cuba Tue morning. High pressure
behind the front will slide eastward along 31N. Yet another cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and to the
forecast waters Wed night into Thu, preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds.

$$
Formosa
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