[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Sun Apr 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 01S36W to the coast of Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-06N between
22W- 35W, and from 03S-07N between 42W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from Cape Coral Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 23N-28N between
South Florida and 86W. Another trough is producing scattered
showers over the Bay of Campeche. Drier air prevails behind the
cold front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the front,
with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in the 4-
6 ft range west of the front, and 1-3 ft east of the front.

The cold front will move slowly SE across the eastern Gulf
through tonight, then exit the area on Mon morning. Another cold
front will move into the northern Gulf Wed afternoon and reach
from the Florida Big Bend to 25N90W to northeastern Mexico early
Thu. The western part of the front will become stationary and
weaken through late Thu night, while the rest of the front will
weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Fri. Weak high pressure will build
across the area in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are embedded
within the tradewind flow. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. A weak
cold front will sink across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon
through Mon night before dissipating Tue. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America could reduce visibility over the Gulf
of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the NW part of the discussion area
from 31N78W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen within 270 nm east of the cold
front, including South Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Gentle
to moderate W winds are behind the front. Moderate to fresh wind
speeds prevail elsewhere across the west Atlantic. Farther east,
ridging prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored
by a 1025 mb high near 28N52W. Light to gentle winds are near the
east- west oriented surface ridge axis, which extends along
27/28N between 37W-70W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the
tropical waters S of 20N. Isolated showers are embedded within
this tradewind flow. Over the open waters, seas are in the 4-6
ft range S of 20N, and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE across the offshore waters and reach
from 31N70W to the coast of NW Cuba Mon morning before stalling
and dissipating from 28N65W to Cuba Tue morning. High pressure
behind the front will slide eastward along 31N. Yet another cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and to the
forecast waters Wed night into Thu, preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds.

$$
AL/Hagen
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