[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
02S28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06S-07N across both the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, between 11W to 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, an upper level trough extends into the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N91W. The front transitions
to a warm front near 27N91W to the coast of Texas near 29N96W. An
area of scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms is noted off
the central Florida coast from 24N-29N between 82W-89W. Numerous
showers are moving along the Florida coast N of 28N and E of 86W.
In the Bay of Campeche, a 1009 mb low is centered near 22N92W with
a trough extending along it from 26N88W to the coast of Mexico
near 18N94W. Showers are noted along this trough. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict gentle to
moderate NE winds behind the cold front with light to gentle
southerly winds ahead of it. Gentle winds are beginning to veer to
the SE along the warm front in the northwestern Gulf. Fresh winds
are noted off the NE Yucatan coast. Seas are ranging between 3 to
7 ft.

The cold front will stall across the NE Gulf tonight, then lift
northward early Sat. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will
produce gusty winds and locally higher seas over the eastern Gulf
through tonight. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf
late tonight, cross the northern Gulf Sat and Sat night, then
reach from near Tampa, Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. A high
pressure ridge building in the wake of this front will pass
eastward across the Gulf Sun night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier
air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are noted on radar across Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. Showers are also moving across the
Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate to fresh trades across the basin.
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean in
addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are ranging from 3 to 7 ft.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over
the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Elsewhere,moderate to
fresh trades will prevail across the region. Smoke from
agricultural fires over Central America could reduce visibility
over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of strong thunderstorms are moving across the western
Atlantic from 26N-33N between 72W-79W. Frequent lightning and
gusty winds can be expected with these storms. Meanwhile, farther
east, a cold front extends into the central Atlantic from 31N49W
to 25N61W. Isolated showers are along this front. Otherwise,
surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh to strong
ESE winds off the coast of Florida in the western Atlantic with
seas reaching to 10 ft.

A cold front will approach the SE U.S. coast through tonight,
then stall near 31N and lift northward as a warm front on Sat.
Strong S to SW winds will continue ahead of the front into this
afternoon, then diminish by tonight. Strong thunderstorms ahead of
the front will produce gusty winds and locally higher seas
offshore of Florida through Sat. Another cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast Sat night, cross the northern waters Sun through
Mon, then extend from near Bermuda to the north-central coast of
Cuba by Mon night. Strong winds will pulse along the northern
coast of Hispaniola tonight and Sat night.

$$
A Reinhart
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