[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Fri Apr 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N12.5W to 04N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N16W to 02S28W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-07N between
11W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near 28N87W
then stationary to 27N94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection was noted E of the front to Florida and N of 27N. A
surface trough extends from 26N89W to low pres near 22N92W to
19N93W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the SE Gulf, with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the western
Gulf.

The cold front will stall across the NE Gulf tonight, then lift
northward early Sat. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will
produce gusty winds and locally higher seas over the eastern Gulf
through tonight. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf
late tonight, cross the northern Gulf Sat and Sat night, then
reach from near Tampa, Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. A high
pressure ridge building in the wake of this front will pass
eastward across the Gulf Sun night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean
as well as the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind
flow. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the western Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over
the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Elsewhere,moderate to
fresh trades will prevail across the region. Smoke from
agricultural fires over Central America could reduce visibility
over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has reached the SE coast of the United States. Fresh
to near gale winds prevail over the NW waters ahead of the
front, where scattered moderate to strong showers are also noted.
A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 25N61W. Moderate to
fresh tradewinds prevail S of 20N, with isolated showers
embedded within the tradewind flow. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters.

The cold front near the SE U.S. coast will stall near 31N and
lift northward as a warm front on Sat. The fresh to near gale S
to SW ahead of the front will diminish tonight. Strong
thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce gusty winds and
locally higher seas offshore of Florida through Sat. Another cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night, cross the
northern waters Sun through Mon, then extend from near Bermuda to
the north-central coast of Cuba by Mon night. Strong winds will
pulse along the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and Sat
night.

$$
AL/A Reinhart
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