[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale-force southerly winds have developed overnight across the
western Atlantic waters, to the N of 29N between 75W AND 78W.
Wave heights of 8 to 10 ft prevail across this area for the n,
while scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are also
occurring across this gale area. Winds are expected to diminish
below gale force by around 1200 UTC as the gale force winds
shift NE of the area. Please read the MIAHSFAT2 forecast, at the
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W, curving to 04N26W, to 02N29W, and to 01N38W. A surface
trough is along 01S37W to the Equator along 45W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection of noted from 01N to 04N between
03W and 07W, from 02N to 08N between 10W and 15W, from 02N to
05N between 42W and 46W, and from 01N to 03N between 47W and
50W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 06N southward between 15W and 24W. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 09N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered troughing extends from the Tennessee Valley SW to
southern Texas, yielding SW upper level flow across the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough supports a
cold front from the far western Florida Panhandle to extreme NE
Mexico. This upper level SW flow was sustaining a cluster of
deep convection along and ahead of the front, across the NE Gulf
from 26N to 30N between 84W and 88W. The front will continue to
weaken as it moves to the Florida Big Bend region today and
gradually dissipates tonight into Sat.

A surface trough is inland, from northern Guatemala, through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northwestward beyond
22N100W.

A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night, then
eventually extend from S Florida to the SW Gulf Sun. High
pressure, following in the wake of the second cold front, will
shift from the southern plains of the U.S.A. on Sunday night to
the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in
water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are suggested in satellite imagery, in broken low
level clouds, from 16N southward from 70W eastward, and from 18N
southward from 74W westward.

A ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea through
Tuesday night. Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night in the
Gulf of Honduras through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are expected elsewhere through Saturday. Smoke, from
agricultural fires in Central America, may reduce the visibility
in the Gulf of Honduras, for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front bisects the central Atlantic ridge, passing
through 32N49W to 26N55W, with the tail end of this front
dissipating S of 28N. A surface trough continues from 25N60W to
22N64W, and curving to NE Puerto Rico. Scattered light to
moderate convection is suggested by satellite imagery from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W, and from 17N in the Caribbean Sea
to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.

An upper level trough is along the coast of Morocco and the
Western Sahara. Scattered convection is possible from 24N
northward from 20W eastward.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast today and shift
eastward through Saturday morning. Strong to gale-force S to SW
winds will prevail across the waters in advance of this front N
of the Bahamas, through late this morning before slowly
diminishing this afternoon through tonight. Another cold front
will move off the coast of northern Florida on Saturday night,
and then extend from near Bermuda to S Florida on Sunday. Strong
winds will pulse along the N coast of Hispaniola each
evening and night through Saturday night.

$$
Stripling
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