[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Mon Apr 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the SE coast of
the United States, currently extending from near 31N77W to near
Daytona Beach, Florida. Earlier scatterometer pass indicated
winds to minimal gale force within 120 NM E of the front N of 29N.
The gale force winds are forecast to lift north of the area by this
evening. Then winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish
to fresh to strong speeds as the front shifts E. Seas of 9 to 12
ft can be expected into this evening. Please see the High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of
Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 01N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 01N40W and to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 270 nm north of the monsoon
trough between 14W- 20W, and within 210 nm south of the ITCZ
between 24W- 31W, and between 35W-41W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen from 00N-08N and west of 46W to the
coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa, Florida to 26N90W, then
stationary to near 29N95W. A line of showers and thunderstorms
prevails within 90 nm S of the front E of 85W. Low pres of 1005
mb is centered over the SW Gulf near 21N96W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are noted over the SE Gulf ahead of the front, with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range over the eastern Gulf, 1-3 ft over the SW Gulf, and
4-5 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move east of the basin this evening and
winds will diminish to gentle and moderate speeds. The next cold
front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf Wed night into Thu
morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of
the front over the western half of the Gulf by Tue night. The
front will reach from near Cross City, Florida to 28N90W by Fri
morning. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico could reduce visibility in the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7
ft range over the NW Caribbean and sough central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. Much of the Caribbean is
dry, with only isolated tradewind showers noted.

Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to
strong speeds at night through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke
from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce
visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has moved off the SE coast of the United States,
currently extending from near 31N77W to near Daytona Beach,
Florida. Active weather, with strong thunderstorms continues
within 180 NM east of the front. Please see above for information
on gale force winds within 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to near
gale force winds extends elsewhere within 300 nm E of the front.
Fresh to strong winds prevail W of the front. Seas in the 8-12
ft range prevail over the NW portion of the discussion area
related to the front. Another cold front extends from 31N45W to
27N62W. This front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in
the 8-10 ft range N of the front. Moderate to fresh tradewinds,
with seas in the 5-7 ft range, prevail S of 20N. Isolated
tradewind showers are embedded within this flow. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range, prevail elsewhere
across the forecast waters.

The front off the SE coast of the United Sates will move across
the waters north of 22N through Wed with fresh to strong
southwest winds ahead of the front as it shifts eastward.
Another cold front will enter the NW offshore waters Fri morning.
Strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds will precede
the front and will affect the waters N of the Bahamas from Thu
morning through Fri evening.

$$
AL/MMT
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