[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N19W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N22W to 00N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is present from 01.5N-05N between
30W-50W and from 05S-0.5S between 32W and the coast of Brazil.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from
07S-02S between 16W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen within 120 nm of the coast of Liberia.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Port Charlotte
Florida to 24N92W. Isolated showers are near the front east of
85W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front over the SE Gulf.
The northern Gulf is under the influence of weak surface high
pressure ridging, with gentle winds found north of 27N east of
93W.

The cold front will shift southeast of the Gulf this afternoon.
The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf late Wed
night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half of
the Gulf by tonight. The front will reach from the western
Florida panhandle to near 26N92W by Thu night, then from
Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf and stationary to eastern
Mexico early Fri. This front is expected to shift east of the
area Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede
this front. Yet another cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas coast and over the NW Gulf late Fri night into early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from 25N60W to Cuba. The latest ASCAT
pass shows fresh trades across the eastern Caribbean east of
75W. Fresh E-SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
winds are elsewhere. Aside from isolated showers over the
Leeward Islands, most of the basin is dry due to strong
subsidence from deep layer ridging.

Fresh trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras will increase to strong speeds at night through Wed
night, then change little through Sat as stronger high pressure
builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade
winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds beginning on
Thu and continue through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N70W to Ft.
Pierce Florida to Port Charlotte Florida. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of
the front, north of 28N and east of 75W. These thunderstorms
contain strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm ahead of
the front from 26N-29N between 75W-79W, including portions of
the northwest Bahamas. ASCAT shows strong SW winds ahead of the
front, north of 27N between 65W-75W. Fresh NW winds are behind
the front. A surface ridge extends from 25N60W to Cuba,
spreading fair weather over the southeastern and central Bahamas.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from 32N70W to Ft.
Pierce Florida will reach from near 32N68W to the Central Bahamas
to the coast of Cuba this evening. The front will reach from near
28N65W to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba early Wed, then weaken
as it moves east of 65W Wed night. Fresh to strong southwest
winds will precede the front mainly north of 27N. Another cold
front is forecast to move east of northern Florida Thu night.
Strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds will precede
the front and are expected over the waters north of the Bahamas
from Thu morning through Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may accompany this front. High pressure will build
in behind the front.

Farther east, a surface high pressure ridge extends from a 1027
mb high near 34N23W to 28N32W to a 1026 mb high near 27N41W to
25N60W. A 1024 mb surface high is near 33N47W. In between the
1024 and 1026 mb highs, a dissipating cold front is from 32N39W
to 29N52W. Fresh SW winds are seen within 120 nm SE of this
front, north of 29.5N and east of 42W. A warm front extends from
32N30W to 31N29W. Scattered showers are present north of 30N
between 27W-37W.

$$
Hagen
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