[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the waters east of
northern Florida this afternoon, then cross the waters N of 22N
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
precede this front north of 27N beginning early this morning and
increase to gale force in deep convection north of 29N by mid
day. The gale force winds are forecast to lift north of the area
by this evening. Then winds in the vicinity of the front will
diminish to fresh to strong speeds as the front shifts E. Seas
of 9 to 12 ft can be expected in the gale force wind area north
of 29N between 70W-80W late this morning into this evening.
Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends southwestward from the coast of
Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 00N23W, where
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 02N38W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated convection is within 200 nm northwest of the trough
between 14W-19W, and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-
29W, and between 31W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is also
seen from 00N-07N and west of 49W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15Z, a cold front has pushed southward into the Gulf
waters. It is analyzed along a position from 29N82W to 26N90W,
then begins to stall at that point to 28N95W. A line of strong
showers and tstorms are moving southeastward ahead of the front
from 27N85W across central FL into the western Atlantic, while a
rather vigorous mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward
over the Florida panhandle. Observations near the stationary
front show areas of fog mainly west of 93W to the coast of Texas
and as far south to Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough is seen
from 23N92W to 18N96W with a 1006 mb low centered near 21N95W.
Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from western Cuba to the
central Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates fresh to locally
strong southwest winds over the north-central Gulf, with fresh
southeast winds farther south near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle
winds are present over the western Gulf.

The forecast calls for the cold front to extend from 28N82W to
26N90W To Brownsville, Texas with fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of it. The cold front will move east of the basin
this evening and winds will diminish to gentle and moderate
speeds. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf
Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
to develop ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf
by Tue night. The front will reach from near Cross City, Florida
to 28N90W by Fri morning. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico could reduce visibility in the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging and associated strong subsidence will
maintain dry and stable weather conditions across the majority
of the basin for the next few days. There are presently two
exceptions. Broken low clouds are noted moving quickly westward
in the trade wind flow over the Lesser Antilles and PR and
eastern Cuba. ASCAT data shows fresh trade winds in the central
Caribbean, except locally strong near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh wind speeds are also present from the Yucatan Channel to
the coast of Honduras, with strong east winds within 60 nm of
the north coast of Honduras. Moderate trade winds are present
elsewhere.

Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras will increase to strong speeds at night through Fri.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere during the
entire period. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan
Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Very active strong to severe shower and thunderstorm activity
occurring over most of the southeastern U.S. has moved offshore
the coast from just north of northeastern FL to the southern
section of South Carolina associated to a 999 mb low pressure
centered near 36N77W. A warm front extends southeastward from the
low to 27N67W where it transitions to a stationary front. Most
of the convection is concentrated from 27N to 31N between 71W to
79W. Gale conditions are forecast to begin by mid morning. See
Special Features above for more details in regards to the Gale
Warning. To the east, a cold front extends southwestward to
27N62W where it connects to the stationary front. Scattered
moderate Convection is seen about 100 nm east of the front north
of 27N to 31N. Shower activity west of 52W is gradually
dissipating. In the Eastern Atlantic, a cold front enters the
area from 30N17W to 28N28W, where it transitions to a weakening
warm front. Scattered Showers are noted in the vicinity of the
boundary. Scattered Showers are seen near the Canary Islands.

Strong to near gale force winds are over the offshore waters N
of 26N ahead of a cold front that will enter the area this
afternoon. Gale force winds are expected later this morning,
continuing through the early evening hours. The front will move
across the waters north of 22N through Wed with fresh to strong
southwest winds continuing ahead of the front as it shifts
eastward. Another cold front will enter the NW offshore waters
Fri morning. Strong to possibly near gale force southerly winds
will precede the front and will affect the waters N of the
Bahamas from Thu morning through Fri evening.

$$
MTorres
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