[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Guinea and Sierra Leone 08N13W, to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 01N345W. A secondary ITCZ is seen to the south
extending from 02S24W to 07S34W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 23W.
Scattered showers are 150nm on either side of both ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico extending from
the SW coast of Louisiana to Padre Island in South Texas. A mix
of mid and high-level clouds continue to stream across the area
near the front and west of 90W. Areas of fog have been observed
in the latest observations from 90W to the coast of Texas. In the
eastern Gulf, a surface trough extends from the FL Panhandle to
28N91W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted from 27N to 30N
Between 83W to 89W. This is providing a broad area of cloudiness
Across the central and northern FL. In the Bay of Campeche, a
surface trough is near the Yucatan Peninsula extending from
24N88W to 19N91W. No Significant convection is seen near the
trough axis.

The cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to
Brownsville, TX this afternoon before moving east of the area
tonight. A second cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf
Sun night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W by
Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected
ahead of the front starting Sun morning. Otherwise, smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce
visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Anticyclonic circulation continues across the Caribbean Sea. The
Water vapor imagery shows the presence of drier airmass across
the basin. Scattered showers are streaming north of 16N between
the Lesser Antilles west across Hispaniola into Jamaica. Another
trough is seen near the U.S. Virgin Islands from 22N63W to
16N62W. The remainder of the basin show very limited shower
activity south of 16N to the coastal areas of S America and the
SW Caribbean. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 14N between 72W-76W and near strong north of
Colombia. Elsewhere, Lighter easterly winds west of 78W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Wed. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected
elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke from
agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility
near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N40W to 26N52W, then transitions to
a stationary front to 25N60W. A weakening stationary front
continues to 27N72W. Scattered moderate convection are seen to
the north from 27N47W to 33N38W. A surface trough extends from
24N52W to 15N55W with a few showers noted in the vicinity of the
Trough. A second trough is very well depicted in the latest ASCAT
data in the eastern Atlantic extending from 30N27W to 24N21W. The
Scattered showers are possible near the troughs.

A cold front will move across the northern waters this evening
and Sun, and move E of the area Sun evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead and behind the front through Sun
morning. Another cold front will move into the northern waters
late Mon afternoon. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected
ahead of this front beginning Sun night and continuing through
Tue.

$$
MTorres
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