[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2330 UTC Sat Apr 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N13W, to 00N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Southern Texas. A mix
of mid and high-level clouds continue to stream across the area
near the front. In the eastern Gulf, a surface trough extends
from N Florida to 27.5N87W. Light to gentle winds prevail across
the Gulf waters. eas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SW Gulf,
2-3 ft over the NW Gulf, and 1-2 ft over the eastern Gulf.

The cold front will move east of the area tonight. A second cold
front is expected to reach the NW Gulf Sun night and extend from
the Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W by Mon afternoon. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front starting
Sun morning. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly in the SW
Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the south central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere except the
NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the NW
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Dry air continues across the
basin limiting shower activity.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Wed. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected
elsewhere during the entire period. Otherwise, smoke from
agricultural fires in Central America could reduce visibility
near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N49W, then transitions to
a stationary front to 25N60W. Scattered moderate showers are
noted E of Florida to the N of the Bahamas. A surface trough
extends from 24N53W to 15N56W with a few showers noted in the
vicinity of the trough. A second trough is in the eastern
Atlantic extending from 29N27W to 22N21W. Fresh to strong SW
winds prevail off Northern Florida. Moderate to fresh tradewinds
are noted S of 15N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Over the open waters, seas are in the 6-8 ft range S of 20N, and
4-7 ft elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

A cold front will move across the northern waters this evening
and Sun, and move E of the area Sun evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead and behind the front through Sun
morning. Another cold front will move into the northern waters
late Mon afternoon. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected
ahead of this front beginning Sun night and continuing through
Tue.

$$
AL/MMT
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