[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 08N13W, to 04N17W, to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N26W to 00N35W, to the Equator along 39W, to 01S42W and
01S45W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 05N to
09N between 10W and 13W in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered
moderate is within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between
13W and 18W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate is from 08N southward
between 30W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in
the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the ESE of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level
westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is along the cost of Texas. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 120 nm of the
U.S. Gulf coast between 86W and 92W, from Mississippi to
Louisiana. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other
possible rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
northward.

A ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters this weekend. The
cold front along the Texas coast will weaken and lift northward
tonight ahead of another cold front that is expected to reach
the NW Gulf Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly in the SW
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in
the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm ESE of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans nearly all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level
trough extends from the island of Dominica in the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands, to a cyclonic circulation center that is
in Gulf of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air is apparent in
water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low
level clouds, to the east of the line that runs from the Yucatan
Channel to 15N80W to 13N70W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds near Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. Smoke
from agricultural fires in Central America could reduce
visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N46W to 28N56W, to 26N59W,
25N71W, across the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida near
26N80W. A second cold front is about 270 nm to the NW of the
aforementioned cold front, from 55W eastward. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate is within 150 nm to the north of the
stationary front, from 76W westward to the coast of Florida, and
inland in Florida. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N
northward from 50W westward. Rainshowers are possible, in the
remainder of the area, from 26N northward between 25W and 50W.

A cold front will move across the northern waters tonight and
Sun, then stall and weaken Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are expected ahead of this front. Another cold front will
move into the northern waters Mon night.

$$
MT/DM
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