[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N36W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
between 08W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 11/1500 UTC this morning, a cold front passes through the
Florida Keys near Marathon Florida to 25N85W. A warm front
continues from 25N85W to the coast of Texas just south of Corpus
Christi to 30N100W. Scattered showers are over the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N-29N. Fresh winds cover most of the NW and
north-central Gulf, near and to the north of the warm front.
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

The warm front will continue to lift north today, ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sun
afternoon. This cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend
area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front
moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves
over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to
slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near
Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over
the SW Gulf.

The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be
the potential for strong or even severe thunderstorms that will
precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern
Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from
the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from Sun
into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor
forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean, and no
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. A sfc
ridge extending from the central Atlantic into the northeast
Caribbean has been displaced southward by a cold front north of
the area moving through the Florida Straits and the Bahamas.
This displacement is creating a pressure gradient along the
coast of Venezuela and northeast Colombia where recent
scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong trade winds,
mainly south of 15N between 65W-77W. Fresh E to SE winds are
also pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging from the central Atlantic into the
northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong
winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun,
with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas
will build early next week across the basin as high pressure
strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure is along the coast of the Carolinas behind
a cold front over the Atlantic. The cold front extends from
32N56W to 26N65W to Marathon in the Florida Keys. Scattered
moderate convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of front,
mainly east of 68W and north of 24N. West of 68W, isolated
showers are along and within 90 nm north of the front. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds within 120 nm either side of
the front, mainly east of 66W. Moderate winds are north of the
front between 66W-80W including over the Bahamas.

The portion of the cold front from 26N65W to Marathon Florida
will stall and weaken roughly along 25N through the central
Bahamas Sun. The portion of the front east of 65W will continue
to move east through the next couple of days before stalling and
dissipating early next week near 45W. Southerly winds will
increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a
strong cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this next
front. This second front will stall from near 31N77W to central
Florida through mid-week.

Farther east, a 1018 mb low is near 30N25W. Strong to near-gale
winds are in the NW semicircle of this low. Isolated to
scattered showers are in the area. The low will move SW while
weakening over the next 24 hr.

$$
Hagen
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