[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N45W. Scattered
moderate thunderstorms are observed from 02N-04N between 14W-20W,
and from 03N-06N between 25W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers are observed on regional radar displays over the
northwest Gulf this morning. This activity is just north of a
stalling cold front reaching across the central Gulf from
southwest Florida to south Texas. Observations from buoys and
platforms, along with earlier scatterometer data indicate fresh
NE to E winds over much of the northern Gulf, north of the front.
Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft. gentle to moderate easterly winds
are noted elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural
fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility to 3 to 5 nm
over the far southwest Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the western half of the front will lift north
today as a warm front, ahead of another cold front moving off the
Texas coast Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly flow and
building seas will follow the front. The second front will stall
from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon,
as a reinforcing cold front moves off the Texas coast.

The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be
the potential for strong or even severe thunderstorms that will
precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf.
Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the
north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from late Sat
into Mon. Marine interests these areas should monitor forecasts
and warnings from local NWS offices for more information.

Looking ahead, the fronts will merge then continue to slowly
drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico
Mexico through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extending from the north central Atlantic into the
eastern Caribbean has been displaced southward by a cold front
north of the area moving through Florida and the Bahamas. This
displacement is increasing the pressure gradient along the coast
of Venezuela and northeast Colombia where earlier scatterometer
data indicated fresh to strong trade winds, locally near gale
force off Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Fresh E to
SE winds are also pulsing off the coast of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. The
atmosphere remains fairly dry, and no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is observed.

For the forecast, ridging from the central Atlantic into the
northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong
winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun,
with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will
build early next week across the basin as high pressure
strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from just east of Bermuda through the
northern Bahamas to the upper Florida Keys. Clusters of showers
and thunderstorms were active over the northern Bahamas along the
front, but this activity has largely dissipated in the past
several hours. Showers and thunderstorms are still active within
240 nm east of the front north of 25N. Strong SW winds are also
noted in this area, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh NW winds follow the
front north of 27N with 5 to 8 ft seas in northerly swell. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters east of the Bahamas.

The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken along
roughly 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. Southerly winds will
increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong
cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible with this next front. This
second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida
through mid-week. The portion of the front from 25N- 32N will
continue to move east through the couple of days before stalling
and dissipating early next week near 45W.

Farther east, the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is
currently being disrupted by a low pressure area south of the
Azores along roughly 32N. This pattern is maintaining moderate
trade winds farther south with 5 to 7 ft seas. Stronger winds are
active off northwest Africa near Cap Blanc, with 6 to 9 ft seas.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net