[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N34W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
between 08W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has stalled across the northern Florida Keys and
extends NW across the Gulf as a lifting warm front to 27N90W to
the Texas coast near Matagorda. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico north of the warm
front from 26.5N-29N. Fresh E to E-SE winds cover most of the NW
and north-central Gulf, near and to the north of the warm front.
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

The warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon, ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sun
afternoon. This next cold front will stall from the Florida Big
Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as a reinforcing
cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves
over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to
slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near
Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over
the SW Gulf.

The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that will
precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern
Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from
the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from Sun
into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor
forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean, and no
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. A sfc
ridge extending from the central Atlantic SW to just north of
Hispaniola has been displaced southward by an Atlantic cold
front north of the area moving slowly through the Florida
Straits and the central Bahamas. This displacement is creating a
modest pressure gradient along the coast of Venezuela and
northeast Colombia where recent scatterometer data shows fresh
to locally strong trade winds, mainly south of 15N between 64W-
75W. Fresh E to SE winds are also pulsing in the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere.

Weak ridging from the central Atlantic to the northeast
Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong winds off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun, with
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will
build early next week across the basin as high pressure
strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure is just offshore of the coast of the
Carolinas near 32.5N76W, and behind a cold front over the
Atlantic. The cold front extends from 31N56W to 26N65W to the
northern Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is along
and within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly east of 65W and north
of 24N. Late morning ASCAT data showed fresh winds within 120 nm
either side of the front, mainly east of 66W. Moderate NE to E
winds are north of the front between 66W-80W including over the
Bahamas.

The portion of the cold front from 26N65W to the Florida Keys
will stall and weaken roughly along 25N through the central
Bahamas Sun. The portion of the front east of 65W will continue
to move east through the next couple of days before stalling and
dissipating early next week near 45W. Southerly winds will
increase Sun through Mon off Florida coast, becoming strong to
near gale force off of NE Florida Sun night, ahead of a strong
cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible with this next front. This
second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida
through mid-week.

Farther east, a 1018 mb low is near 29N25W. Strong winds to 30
kt are occurring across the NW semicircle of this low. Isolated
to scattered showers are occurring across the eastern semicircle
of this low. The low will move SW while weakening over the next
24 hr.

$$
Stripling
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