[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

As strong closed low pressure drifts S toward Bermuda Fri and Sat,
W gales are expected in the western Atlantic Fri evening into Sat
morning, generally N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up to 20
ft are also forecast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the near the coast of
Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is located within 90 nm either side of both boundaries, with the
most concentrated convection centered near 05N20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build into the Gulf, with a 1017 mb
center near the SE tip of Louisiana, keeping a dry airmass in
place over the basin. Winds are moderate or less. SE flow is
expect to develop in the W Gulf this evening and throughout the
Gulf by Fri. Winds an seas will remain fairly tranquil through
the weekend, expect for the evenings NW of the coast of the
Yucatan, where fresh to locally strong E winds are possible. A
weak cold front is likely to reach the Texas coast Sat, then stall
there into the start of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Early this morning, a cold front that stretches across Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula is slowing down. A few showers exist along
the boundary, otherwise the Caribbean is dry, due to a modest 1014
mb high pressure centered between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Some moderate to locally fresh trades are occurring in the SE
Caribbean, others generally light to gentle winds prevail.

The cold front will move through Cuba and the Cayman Islands
today, then stall tonight from Haiti to Jamaica and gradually
dissipate through Fri night. Winds and seas in the Caribbean will
remain fairly tranquil through Sat, then freshen over the south-
central Caribbean Sat night into early next week as stronger high
pressure builds in from the NE. Locally strong winds are possible
during the overnights starting Sat night in the Gulf of Honduras
and especially the N coast of Colombia. N swell will affect the
NE Caribbean passages Fri through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Across the entire Atlantic, conditions are generally stormier and
windier north of 25N, while fair and tranquil conditions prevail
in the 10N-25N latitude band.

Gales are currently N of 32N. A cold front extends from SE of
Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos and across Cuba. Scattered
showers are along and within 120 nm ahead of the front. Strong SW
winds are occurring ahead of this front N of 27N, with strong NW
winds also occurring behind it N of 27N E of 73W. A warm front
extends from a powerful low pressure N of Bermuda SE to 31N55W to
26N50w. Farther east, a cold front is located from 31N25W to
24N31W, with a secondary front behind it from 31N31W to 26N40W.
Scattered showers are located N of 28N between these two fronts.
Strong NW winds are occurring behind both fronts, mainly N of 24N.
A 1016mb high pressure is centered near 20N52W.

The W Atlantic cold front will move SE and reach just N of the
Leeward Islands by Fri night. Strong SW winds and very large seas
will prevail ahead of the front N of 27N this morning. Similar
conditions are expected behind the front in NW winds. Gale
conditions are likely N of 29N and E of 68W Fri night through
early Sat as low pressure sinks S toward Bermuda. N swell will
produce very large seas across the SW N Atlantic waters through
the weekend, then gradually decay early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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