[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

As strong closed low pressure drifts S toward Bermuda Fri and Sat,
W gales are expected in the western Atlantic Fri evening into Sat
morning, generally N of 30N between 64W and 67W. Seas of up to 20
ft are also forecast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N10W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N33W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-04S between 13W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-06N between 36W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from the W tip of Cuba
near 22N85W to 23N88W. No precipitation is noted. A surface ridge
with axis along 87W is over the Gulf of Mexico. Return surface
flow along the coasts of SW Louisiana and Texas is producing
scattered showers. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather.
In the upper levels zonal flow prevails. Upper level cloudiness is
over the NW Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence.

The stationary front near the Yucatan Channel will weaken and
dissipate by Sat. High pressure ridging over the Gulf will
promote moderate SE winds over the basin through Sat night. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse each evening N and W of the Yucatan
Peninsula as a thermal trough moves NW from the Peninsula to the
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N77W to the 21N82W
to the W tip of Cuba near 22N85W. Scattered showers are over E
Cuba. Similar showers are over Hispaniola. Elsewhere scattered
moderate convection is inland along the border of Costa Rica and
Panama.

The front will weaken and dissipate by Sat. Generally light to
moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as high
pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh winds
are likely to begin pulsing each night starting Sat night over
the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale warning has been issued for the Atlantic. See above.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N60W to the
coast of E Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection is N of
28N between 50W-58W. A 1016 mb high is over the subtropical
Atlantic near 20N47W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N28W to 26N36W. Another tail end of a cold front
is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 23N30W. Isolated moderate
convection is N of 25N between 13W-26W to include the Canary
Islands.

The W Atlantic cold front will slowly shift E to eventually extend
from 31N43W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun morning.
Gale conditions are possible N of 29N and E of 68W Fri night
through early Sat as intense low pressure centered SE of New
England sinks S towards Bermuda. N swell generated by the low
will produce very large seas across the SW N Atlantic waters
through the weekend, then seas will gradually subside as the swell
decay early next week.

The E Atlantic fronts will continue to move E through Sat evening
with convection.

$$ Formosa
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