[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The cold front that had been producing gale force winds late Wed
in the vicinity of 30N65W is no longer producing gale force winds
in our area, south of 31N. Gale force winds are forecast to
return to the western Atlantic late Friday into early Saturday,
mainly north of 28N between 60W-70W as low pressure N of the area
moves south. Seas in excess of 15 ft are likely. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from
02S-06N between 05W-13W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-05N between 34W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 02/0300 UTC, a cold front has cleared the Gulf of Mexico,
and now extends from the central Bahamas to 22N84W, and across the
Yucatan Channel to 22N88W. A ridge of high pressure has moved over
the Gulf behind the front, anchored by a 1016 mb surface high
along the coast of SE Louisiana near 29N90W. As a result, dry air
prevails over the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate
anticyclonic winds over the basin. These conditions will continue
through today. Southeasterly return flow is expected over the W
Gulf tonight and Fri. Winds and seas will remain tranquil through
the weekend. A cold front may move off the Texas coast Sat, then
stall over the northern Gulf Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 02/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the central Bahamas
near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N80W to the NE Yucatan near 22N88W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are along the front, mainly
north of 21N between 78W-84W, along the south coast of Cuba.
Isolated showers are near the front over the Yucatan Channel. Dry
air covers the remainder of the basin. A 1013 mb high is just W
of Jamaica near 18N80W. As a result of a weak pressure gradient,
light to gentle winds cover the western Caribbean and north-
central Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades
over the SE and south-central portion of the basin.

The cold front over Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will stall along
20N today and dissipate Fri. Winds and seas in the Caribbean
will remain fairly tranquil through Sat, then freshen over the
south-central Caribbean Sun into early next week. Winds will
freshen through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Fri
night through Mon. Locally strong winds may start to pulse off the
coast of Colombia and Gulf Honduras at the start of next week. N
swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages Fri through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Across the entire Atlantic, conditions are generally stormier and
windier north of 25N, while fair and tranquil conditions prevail
in the 10N-25N latitude band.

A 979 mb storm force low is centered north of the area near
37N66W. The gales associated with this low are all north of 32N
right now. A cold front extends from 37N63W to 30N65W to 26N70W to
the central Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N80W to the NE
Yucatan near 22N88W. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm
ahead of the front. Strong to near-gale SW winds are within 210 nm
E of the cold front, mainly N of 27N. Strong NW winds behind the
front are north of 27N and east of 75W. A warm front extends from
37N63W to 30N57W to 25N50W. Isolated moderate convection is north
of 29N between 51W-61W. Farther east, a weak cold front is present
from 32N25W to 23N34W. Scattered moderate convection is north of
27N between 22W-37W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong W winds
over a large area from roughly 25N-31N between 33W-48W. A surface
ridge extends from 30N17W to 20N30W to 18N40W to a 1017 mb high
near 20N55W to 19N64W. Light to gentle winds are within a few
hundred nm either side of the surface ridge axis.

The W Atlantic cold front will move SE and reach just N of the
Leeward Islands by Fri. Strong SW winds and very large seas will
prevail ahead of the front N of 27N this morning. Similar
conditions are expected behind the front in NW winds. Gale force
NW winds are likely to develop N of 28N between 60W and 70W late
Fri into early Sat as low pressure N of the area sinks S.
Northerly swell will produce large seas across through the
weekend, especially from 24N-31N between 50W-77W, then gradually
decay early next week.

$$
Hagen
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