[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2328 UTC Wed Apr 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

As of 01/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near 32N66W
across the central Bahamas to NW Cuba. Intensifying low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull this front eastward across
the waters through Thu night. Gale force SW winds and very large
seas will prevail ahead of the front N of 27N this evening. Gale
force NW gusts are expected behind the front over N waters
through tonight. Gale force winds may develop over south of
Bermuda Fri into early Sat as the associated low pressure system
dives toward the southeast and passes just north of 31N. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-03S between 35W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from NW Cuba to 23N89W
where it transitions to a dissipating stationary to 24N97W. Winds
south of the front are light and variable, while those to the
north are N to NE moderate to fresh breeze. Scattered showers are
present within 60 nm of the front.

The cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel and pass southeast of
the Gulf this evening. Associated winds and seas will diminish
over the E Gulf tonight into early Thu. Winds and seas will
remain relatively tranquil into the upcoming weekend as high
pressure builds over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front may
move off the Texas coast Sat, then stall over the N Gulf Sun
into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong low pressure system off of the mid-Atlantic has eroded
the Bermuda High and displaced it well to the southeast. As a
result, the very weak N-S pressure gradient is producing some of
the calmest trades - light to moderate breeze - typically ever seen
over the Caribbean. No significant convection is occurring over
the Caribbean this afternoon.

Winds and seas in the Caribbean will remain fairly tranquil
through Sat, then freshen over the S-central Caribbean Sun into
early next week. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan
Channel this evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by
Fri. Winds will freshen through the Windward Passage and in the
lee of Cuba Fri night through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

As of 01/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near 32N66W
across the central Bahamas to NW Cuba. A warm front - extending
from the same low pressure as the cold front - is analyzed from
32N59W to 26N50W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of
these fronts. Farther east, a weak cold front is present from
32N25W to 20N40W. While the front does not promote any strong
winds, a trailing trough from 32N34W to 27N38W is associated with
strong to near gale southwesterlies. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 27N between 28W and 38W.

The intensifying low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
pull the strong cold front across the waters through Thu night.
The associated low pressure system should dive southeast and
pass just south of Bermuda. Northerly swell will produce large
seas across the SW N Atlantic waters and east of the Leeward
Islands through the weekend, then gradually decay early next
week.

$$
Landsea/Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net