[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 20.5N 65.2W at 25/0900 UTC,
or about 155 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving NE at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Karen will continue to move
toward the north this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast
is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thu.
On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move farther away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government
of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands. Numerous strong
convection extends outward from the center 80 nm NW quad,
and more scattered moderate to strong convection 160 nm SE quad,
80 nm NW quad. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen
200 nm outward from the center. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry is centered near 31.8N 67.9W at
25/0900 UTC, or about 185 nm W of Bermuda, moving NNE at 4 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. A continued northeasterly
motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the
east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is
expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Gradual weakening is
expected during the next few days. No convection is present
within 180 nm of Jerry's center. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 13.6N 33.9W at 25/0900 UTC, or
about 640 nm W of the southernmost part of the Cabo Verde Islands,
moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt, and minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Lorenzo
is expected to continue to move towards the west-northwest through
Thu. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by
Thursday. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and 100 nm SW quadrant, scattered
strong convection is seen in the east semicircle. Numerous
moderate convection extends 180 nm to the east of the center
and 150 nm to the west. Scattered showers and tstorms extend
300 nm from the center across the storm. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Heavy rain event over Central America and Southeastern Mexico: The
East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean inland
over the spine of Central America, across Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, and westward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Southwesterly
monsoonal flow is carrying abundant moisture from the tropical
Pacific Ocean toward Central America. As a result, heavy rainfall
is expected over Central America today through the week and into
the weekend. By late this week and into the weekend, the greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from
southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. The heavy rains could lead
to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 25N44W to 14N46W to
02N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
09N-28N between 41W-47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 13N16W
to 13N19W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo
from 10N35W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to 06N57W.
Aside from the convection associated with Lorenzo and the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough near Africa extending 200 nm N and S of the
boundary. No significant convection is noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the coasts of Texas,
northeastern Mexico, and the western Gulf of Mexico west of 93W
and north of 23N. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf
east of 93W. At the surface, a 1015 mb high pressure is near the
northern Gulf Coast. A surface trough extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico from 24N90W to 18N90W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
trough axis with isolated strong tstorms seen in the Yucatan
Channel near 19N-22N between 86W-91W.

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat.
Elsewhere high pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An E-W surface trough across the northern Caribbean Sea extending
from the western Atlantic across the Bahamas and the Windward
Passage to the Caribbean Sea near 19N84W. Water vapor and TPW
loops show a sharp moisture gradient along a line from 21N78W to
23N86W, with dry air north of this line and moist air south of the
line. Scattered moderate convection is seen 200 nm to the south
and 60 nm to the north of the trough axis.

Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable
winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central
Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades
returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will quickly
move across the tropical N Atlc by the end of the week, through
the eastern Caribbean Sat, and central Caribbean Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated upper-level low is located to the southwest of Jerry.
This has induced strong southwesterly shear over Jerry, causing
the tropical storm to become devoid of any convection. Jerry as
of 25/0900 UTC, is a Post-Tropical Cyclone. Bermuda continues to
be under Tropical Storm Warning. Scattered showers are located to
the east of Jerry, seen from 26N-31N between 57W-62W. Farther east,
an upper-level low prevails just north of the area centered near
33N46W, with a tail of mid to upper-level moisture wrapping well
to the southeast and south of the upper-low. The moisture extends
into the northern end of the tropical wave from 25N-31N between
33W- 44W. A 1028 mb high pressure is in control across the far
east Atlantic.

Post-Tropical Cyclone will move to 32.3N 66.5W this afternoon,
33.0N 64.2W Thu morning, 33.9N 61.7W Thu afternoon, 34.6N 59.3W
Fri morning, and 34.0N 55.5W Sat morning. Jerry will dissipate
early Sun. Tropical Storm Karen will move to 22.3N 64.5W this
afternoon, 24.5N 63.9W Thu morning, 26.4N 63.2W Thu afternoon,
27.3N 62.5W Fri morning, and 27.1N 61.9W Sat morning. Karen will
change little in intensity as it moves to 26.3N 64.4W early Sun,
and continue to 25.9N 67.8W early Mon.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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