[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 19.8N 65.1W at 25/0600 UTC,
or about 110 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving NE at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. On the forecast track, the
center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located
to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect
those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection extends outward from the
center 30 nm SE quad, 80 nm NE quad, 120 nm NW quad. Puerto Rico
radar shows that heavy rains cover the western half of Puerto Rico
and the waters from 18N-20N between 66W-67W. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 31.6N 68.4W at 25/0600 UTC,
or about 220 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. A continued northeastward motion at a
slight faster forward speed is expected this morning, followed by
a turn to the east-northeast by tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days and Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone later today. No convection
is present within 180 nm of Jerry's center. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 13.2N 32.4W at 25/0300
UTC, or about 545 nm W of the southernmost part of the Cabo Verde
Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 60
kt gusting to 75 kt, and minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest, and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the northwest is
expected Thursday night. Lorenzo is expected to strengthen to a
hurricane tonight or Wednesday. Numerous strong convection is
within 90 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and 20 nm W
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300
nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Heavy rain event over Central America and Southeastern Mexico: The
East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean inland
over the spine of Central America, across Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, and westward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Southwesterly
monsoonal flow is carrying abundant moisture from the tropical
Pacific Ocean toward Central America. As a result, heavy rainfall
is expected over Central America today through the week and into
the weekend. By late this week and into the weekend, the greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from
southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. The heavy rains could lead
to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 25N44W to 13N44W to
03N43W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N-29N between 42W-46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 15N20W. The monsoon trough resumes west of T.S. Lorenzo
from 09N37W to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to 07N59W.
Aside from the convection associated with Lorenzo and the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough extending 180 nm N of the boundary. No significant
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the coasts of Texas,
northeastern Mexico, and the western Gulf of Mexico west of 92W
and north of 23N. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf
east of 92W. At the surface, high pressure of 1013 mb is near the
northern Gulf Coast of southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana. A
surface trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and south-
central Gulf of Mexico from 25N89W to 18N90W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is along the trough axis with
isolated strong tstorms seen south of 22N and west of 87W.
Similar convection is inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered showers are noted from 21N-25N right along the trough.

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late Fri
or Sat. This trough has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone before reaching NE Mexico late Fri or Sat. Elsewhere high
pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An E-W surface trough across the northern Caribbean Sea extending
from the Bahamas to 20N74W to 20N84W. Water vapor and TPW loops
show a sharp moisture gradient along a line from 21N78W to 23N86W,
with dry air north of this line and moist air south of the line.
Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-21N between 69W-85W.
Scattered moderate convection is also over northern Colombia and
the waters near the coast of Panama.

T.S. Karen will move north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, exiting the Caribbean Sea tonight. Karen will change little
in intensity as it moves to 26.5N 61.5W late Sat, and to 26.0N
65.5W Sun. Otherwise, fairly weak pressure pattern with light and
variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and
central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and
trades returning by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated upper-level low is located to the southwest of Jerry.
This has induced strong southwesterly shear over Jerry, causing
the tropical storm to become devoid of any convection. A large
area of scattered moderate convection is located to the east of
Jerry, seen from 25N-31N between 56W-63W. Farther east, an upper-
level low prevails just north of the area centered near 33N46W,
with a tail of mid to upper-level moisture wrapping well to the
southeast and south of the upper-low. The moisture extends into
the northern end of the tropical wave from 25N-31N between 34W-42W.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 32.2N 67.3W Wed morning, 33.0N
64.9W Wed evening, weaken to a remnant low near 33.8N 62.3W Thu
morning. Jerry will dissipate late Sat. Tropical Storm Karen will
move to 20.8N 64.6W Wed morning, 23.2N 64.0W Wed evening, 25.5N
63.4W Thu morning, 27.0N 62.5W Thu evening, and 26.8N 61.5W Fri
evening. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to
26.5N 61.5W late Sat, and to 26.0N 65.5W Sun.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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