[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 25/1500 UTC, is near 14.1N
35.1W. Lorenzo is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 15 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered strong is within 300 nm of the center
in the W semicircle. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the E
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Karen, at 25/1500 UTC, is near
21.7N 64.9W. Karen is moving N, or 360 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 360 nm of the center in the S semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry, at 25/1500 UTC, is
near 32.0N 66.8W. Jerry is moving ENE, or 070 degrees, 9 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 600 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, from 25N to
35N. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern Mexico...
The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from N sections of
Colombia, across Panama, through the western side of Costa Rica,
and along the western coast of Nicaragua, and the southern
coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala, into the coastal waters of
southern Mexico, and beyond, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy
rainfall is expected in Central America, from today into the
weekend. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, for the rest of
the week and into the weekend, will migrate northwestward to
areas from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is
possible that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas
near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 23N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 210 nm on the eastern side of
the wave from 10N to 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N16W and to 05N25W. Precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to
the N of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Cyclonic wind flow, from a middle level to upper level trough,
covers much of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N northward from 90W
westward, including in Mexico from 102W eastward. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula, along 91W/92W,
from the SW part of the Yucatan Peninsula to 25N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the line that
extends from 26N91W 23N89W, to 21N87W in the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Development of this feature into a tropical cyclone
is not expected. It is forecast to move westward 5 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The area of low pressure is
expected to move inland in northeastern Mexico on Saturday.

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, during the next
few days, before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico on
Saturday. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will
begin to shift eastward on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and in
southeastern Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
for more details.

An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica,
Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is along 26N71W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to the SE Bahamas, curving through the Windward
Passage, to 20N80W, and to the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
240 nm to the south of the trough, in the Caribbean Sea, between
74W and 80W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea, within 500 nm to the south of the trough from 72W westward.

Tropical Storm Karen near 21.7N 64.9W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving N at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Karen will move to 23.4N 64.4W this evening, 25.4N 63.7W Thu
morning, 26.9N 62.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 50
kt gusts to 60 kt, then increase slightly in strength as it
reaches to near 27.5N 62.0W Fri morning, and 26.8N 62.0W Sat
morning. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to
26.0N 65.0W early Sun, and continue to 25.5N 68.5W early on Mon.
A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail, elsewhere, across the western and central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. More typical conditions and
trade winds will return by the end of the week. A tropical wave
will move across the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, quickly, by the
end of the week, through the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea
on Saturday, and the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a first cyclonic circulation
center that is near 31N67W, to a second upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near 24N73W, into the waters that are
between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is along
26N71W, to the SE Bahamas, curving through the Windward Passage,
to 20N80W, and to the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
240 nm to the south of the trough, in the Caribbean Sea, between
74W and 80W. Isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of
the trough in the Atlantic Ocean, and elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea within 500 nm to the south of the trough from 72W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N45W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 35W and 55W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 20N northward between 35W and
51W.

Tropical Storm Karen near 21.7N 64.9W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving N at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Karen will move to 23.4N 64.4W this evening, 25.4N 63.7W Thu
morning, 26.9N 62.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 50
kt gusts to 60 kt, then increase slightly in strength as it
reaches 27.5N 62.0W Fri morning, and 26.8N 62.0W Sat morning.
Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to 26.0N 65.0W
early Sun, and continue to 25.5N 68.5W early on Mon.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry, north of area, near 32.0N 66.8W 998
mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. Jerry will become post-tropical and move to
32.6N 65.1W this evening, 33.4N 62.9W Thu morning, 34.3N 60.4W
Thu evening, 34.9N 58.0W Fri morning, and 33.8N 54.5W Sat
morning. Jerry will dissipate early on Sunday.

$$
mt
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