[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Pablo weakens to a tropical storm in the far NE Atlantic...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 46.0N 17.1W at 28/0300 UTC,
or about 380 nm WNW of the NW tip of Spain, moving N at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 kt with gusts to 75
kt, and minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east and south of the center. A slower
northward motion is expected later today and Tuesday. Additional
weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Pablo should
transition to a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36/37W
from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07.5N-09.5N between 30W-37W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere from 03N-13N between 30W-39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from
16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are from 09N-
12N between 55W-59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 71W from 08N-21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. A large upper-level low is centered near
16N70W. East of the upper-low, isolated light to moderate showers
are from 14N-21N between 65W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from
12N-23N, moving NW around 5 kt. This wave, interacting with an
upper-level low that is centered near Belize, is producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the
western Caribbean, SE Gulf of Mexico and Central America from
11N-25N between 81W-89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 06N27W to 09N33W to
05N46W to 09N55W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves described above, isolated moderate convection
is noted from 01N-04N between 13W-29W. Isolated showers are from
06N-11N between 41W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 28/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Jacksonville Beach
Florida to near Ocala Florida, then continues as a stationary
front to 28N83W to 25N89W, then continues as a warm front to
24N91W to 22N92W to a 1012 mb low near 19N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N-23N between 90.5W-94.5W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere within 30 nm of the warm and stationary fronts to
the southwest of 27N84W. Scattered moderate convection due to a
tropical wave is located well to the southeast of the front, from
25N southward through the Yucatan Channel between 82.5W-87W. Over
the northern Gulf of Mexico, deep-layered ridging and dry air
prevail along with gentle winds.

The front will lift north tonight into Tue as a warm front. A
strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Thu,
with gale force winds possible behind the front over the western
Gulf Thu and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level cyclonic flow extends over the Caribbean between
61W-77W. Another upper-low is centered over Belize. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves and upper-lows described
in the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection
is in the far SW Caribbean from 09N-11N between 79W-82W in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Relatively dry
air is found over the Lesser Antilles as well as the area from
72W-78W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the central
Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of NW Venezuela and
off N Colombia, from 11N-14N between 70W-75W.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across most of the
Caribbean through Tue, while fresh to locally strong trades
prevail along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Large long
period NE swell building across central Atlantic and into the
Leeward Islands will peak this morning and then begin to slowly
subside Tue. Reinforcing large N-NE swell will propagate through
the tropical north Atlantic waters and through the NE Caribbean
passages Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about Tropical Storm Pablo
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to Ocala Florida.
Isolated showers are offshore Daytona Beach Florida. Surface
ridging prevails from 21N-31N between 65W-79W. A cold front
enters the central Atlantic near 32N39W and extends westward to
28N50W to 29N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30.5N
east of the cold front between 33W-37W. A surface trough is from
30N37W to 24N44W, with isolated showers near the trough. An
upper-level trough axis extends from 40N40W to 30N31W to 20N34W
to 15N54W. Scattered light showers and high cirrus clouds are east
of the upper trough, from 27N-32N between 24W-29W. A 1017 mb
surface high is near 27N22W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the W Atlantic through
Wed night. A weak cold front will approach the far northwest
waters tonight, then stall and lift back north by Tue. Large long-
period north swell will continue to affect nearly the entire
Atlantic basin from the Equator to 32N between 20W-70W through
late this week. For the forecast area west of 65W, the NE swell
today will decay somewhat for Tuesday. However, expect NE swell to
increase again on Wednesday, peaking on Thursday, before gradually
decaying by late Fri. Significant wave heights of 9 to 11 ft are
currently being forecast for Thursday and Friday from 20N-31N
between 65W-75W, east of the Bahamas.

$$
Hagen
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