[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Pablo becomes a Hurricane in the far Northeastern Atlantic...

Hurricane Pablo is centered near 44.7N 17.2W at 27/2100 UTC, or
about 565 nm NE of Lajes Air Base in the Azores, moving NNE at 22
kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt,
and minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is present within 50 nm of the center in the N
semicircle and 50 nm S semicircle. A turn to the north then
northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected
tonight through Monday. Weakening is expected to begin tonight
and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from
15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 04N-13N between 31W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from
15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-13N between 52W-57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 70W south
of 20N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave has scattered showers
near the vicinity of the wave from 14N-22N between 66W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W south
of 22N, moving W around 10 kt. This wave, interacting with an
upper level low, is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection across the western Caribbean from 14N-24N
between 83W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N18W to 06N35W, then W
of a tropical wave near 05N36W to 09N54W. The ITCZ continues W of
another tropical wave near 09N56W to the coast of Guyana near
08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-
09N between 20W- 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to
27N85W, then stalls from 27N85W to a 1011 mb low near 19N92W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm
of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Bay
of Campeche near the low, S of 22N and E of 93W. Surface ridging
from a 1019 mb low located in west-central Mississippi is
extending into the northern Gulf. The combination of a tropical
wave and an upper level low is bringing scattered moderate
convection from the Yucatan Passage to the southern Gulf. See the
tropical waves discussion for more details. Latest scatterometer
data depicts calm to light winds across the basin.

A stationary front extends from near Cedar Key FL to the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas behind this front will continue to
diminish through Monday over the western Gulf, as the front
begins to lift north as a warm front. A strong cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf early Thursday, with gale force
winds possible behind the front over the western Gulf Thursday
and Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea.

An upper-level low in the NW Caribbean is enhancing the
convection described above in the Tropical Waves section.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is also seen over the far
SW Caribbean Sea in association to the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough and the upper level low, mainly south of 16N between 78W-
84W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
over the south- central Caribbean and fresh SE winds to the west
of Jamaica. Calm to light winds are seen elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across most of the
Caribbean through Tuesday, while fresh to locally strong trades
prevail along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Large long
period NE swell building across central Atlantic and into the
Leeward Islands will peak tonight through Monday morning and then
begin to slowly subside Tuesday. Reinforcing large N-NE swell
will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and
through the NE Caribbean passages Wednesday through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about Hurricane Pablo and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Deep-layered ridging continues across the western Atlantic. There
is isolated showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Florida
and through the Bahamas, mostly from 26N-31N and W of 76W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N44W and extends westward
to 31N64W with showers along the front. A pre-frontal trough is
seen from 31N38W to 22N51W. A dying stationary front is analyzed
from 28N27W to 19N39W with a shear line from 19N39W to 16N51W to
17N61W. Scattered showers are moving across the central Atlantic
from 24N-31N between 23W-36W. Two high pressures, both with a
central pressure of 1018 mb, are analyzed near 26N25W and 30N14W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds in the
western Atlantic, N of 29N and W of 74W. Moderate easterly winds
are also seen in the Atlantic from 20N-24N between 47W-68W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the region through
Wednesday night. Large long-period northeast swell will build
seas over the southeastern part of the area E of 70W Sunday
through early Monday, then gradually decay into Tuesday. A weak
cold front will approach the far northwest waters tonight, then
stall and lift back north by Tuesday.

$$
AKR
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