[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Pablo rapidly weakening in the far NE Atlantic...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 46.6N 17.5W at 28/0900 UTC,
or about 405 nm WNW of the NW tip of Spain, moving N at 4 kt.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt, and minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Significant convection
is no longer occurring within 60 nm of the center. A slow
northward motion is expected to continue until Pablo dissipates
Tuesday morning. Pablo should transition to a post-tropical
cyclone later this morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
19N34W to 01N41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07.5N-11N between 31W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from
16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N-12N between 56.5W-58.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72/73W from 08N-
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A large upper-level low is centered
near 16N70W. Isolated moderate showers are from 16N-22N between
68W-75W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W from
13N-25N, moving NW around 5 kt. This wave, interacting with an
upper-level low that is centered near northern Belize, is
producing scattered moderate convection over the southern Gulf of
Mexico from 21N-25N between 86W-90W. Isolated moderate convection
is elsewhere from 16N-25N between 82W-91W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 08N30W to
08N36W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N41W to 07N49W
to 09N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, isolated moderate convection is noted from
01N-04N between 13W-32W. Isolated showers are from 07N-11N
between 42W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 28/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Daytona Beach
Florida to just north of Clearwater Florida, then continues as a
warm front from 28N83W to 25N90W to 22N93W to a 1011 mb low near
19N93W. A tropical wave is also over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SE Gulf of Mexico
south and east of the warm front, as well as along the warm front
and extending to within 90 nm NW of the warm front. Over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, northwest of the warm front, deep-
layered ridging and dry air prevail along with gentle winds.

The warm front will lift north into the southern United States by
Tue night. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf early Thu, then push SE to extend from central Florida to the
southern Bay of Campeche by Fri night. Gale force winds are
possible W of the front along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz
Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level cyclonic flow extends over the Caribbean between
63W-79W. Another upper-low is centered near northern Belize. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves and upper-lows
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N
between 80W-84W in association with the east Pacific monsoon
trough. Relatively dry air is found over the Lesser Antilles as
well as the area from 73W-79W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades over the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the
coast of NW Venezuela and off N Colombia, from 11N-14N between
70W-75W.

Fresh to locally strong trades are expected along the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela through Tue. Otherwise, moderate trade
winds will generally prevail across most of the Caribbean through
Fri night. Large long period NE swell affecting the Atlantic
Passages will slowly subside through Tue night. A reinforcing
round of large N to NE swell will propagate through the tropical
north Atlantic waters and through the NE Caribbean passages Wed
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about Tropical Storm Pablo
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 32N80W to Daytona Beach Florida to near
Clearwater, Florida. Isolated moderate convection is from 28N-32N
between 75W-79.5W. A 1019 mb high near 30N66W extends surface
ridging over the area from 23N-31N between 65W-75W. A cold front
enters the area near 32N35W and extends westward to 27N46W to
28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30.5N east of
the cold front between 28W-33W. A surface trough is from 28N38.5W
to 23N44W, with isolated showers well east of the trough.
Scattered light showers and high cirrus clouds are north of 29N
between 20W-24W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N22W, and a 1015
mb surface high is near 21N41W, with surface ridging in between
the two highs.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate
east to southeast winds across the region through Thu night. Large
long-period north swell will continue to affect nearly the entire
Atlantic basin from the Equator to 32N between 20W-70W through
late this week. For the forecast area west of 65W, northeast
swell will maintain seas between 8 and 10 feet for the waters S of
25N and E of 72W this morning, then seas will subside to below 8
feet by sunrise on Tue as the swell decay. More long period NE
swell will cause seas E of the Bahamas to build to between 8 and
11 feet by Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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