[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from
03N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-15N between 33W-41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from
16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Total precipitable water
imagery shows a large pocket of enhanced moisture coinciding with
the wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 06N-11N between 41W and the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from
20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is depicted in
model guidance. An upper-level low over eastern Nicaragua is
enhancing scattered moderate convection along the wave axis from
11N-14.5N between 81W-84W. Scattered showers are seen from 17N-20N
between 80W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 07N37W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 08N41W to 08N46W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above,
isolated to scattered moderate showers are seen from 04N-10N
between 17W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/1500 UTC, a pre-frontal squall line was located in the NW
Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 27N95W. A cold front is located just
inland over Texas and will reach the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is seen north of 27N between 89W-96.5W. Wind gusts to
gale force are possible in the strongest thunderstorms. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere north of 24N and west of 89W.
Farther east, a warm front extends from Cape Canaveral to
Clearwater Florida to 28N86W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are from 27N-29N between 82W-84W, including areas north of
Tampa.

The cold front over SE Texas will move into the NW Gulf later
this afternoon. Then it will reach from near Mobile, AL to near
Tampico, Mexico early Tue, then from near Cape Coral, FL to
offshore of NE Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche early Wed
where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE winds
are expected behind the front Tue through Wed afternoon. Winds
will gradually veer SE across the basin Thu in advance of next
cold front, which is expected to reach the Texas coast Fri
morning. Gale force N winds are possible behind this front Fri and
Fri night in the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave along 83W and the convection from 01N-20N between
80W-85W.

In the SW Caribbean and over N Colombia, the East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 06N-13N
between 73W-79W. Weak upper-level divergence and enhanced moisture
are causing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 13N-19N
between 69W-80W. Additional isolated showers are seen over the
eastern Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass depicts moderate trades
across much of the eastern and central Caribbean.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 83W will move westward toward Central America and the
NW Caribbean, exiting the region by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N72W to
29N75W to 28N78W, and it continues as a stationary front to Cape
Canaveral Florida to Clearwater Florida. Isolated showers are
along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front. To the east, a
central Atlantic stationary front extends from 32N46W to 25N53W to
24N59W. Isolated to scattered moderate showers prevail along and
south of the front, mainly from 21N-27N between 50W-57W. A pair
of surface troughs are analyzed, extending from 25N42W to 20N44W
and from 31N36W to 23N34W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along and east of the second trough from 24N-30N between 30W-35W.

The W Atlantic cold front will slowly shift E through the week.
Another cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue
evening and become stationary over central Florida and N of the
Bahamas by Thu, gradually dissipating along 27N. High pres will
build from the middle Atlantic coast SE into the area in the wake
of this front.

$$
Hagen
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