[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong within 240 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 10N to 17N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 250 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 10N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is inland, in central Nicaragua. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and sections of
Central America, from 20N southward between 80W and 90W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong covers the area that is from Panama to Honduras
and Guatemala and nearby coastal waters, in the same area of the
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 09N18W and 07N21W. The ITCZ is
along 07N21W, 07N37W, 08N43W, and 08N47W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is
within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 20W and
37W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side
of the ITCZ between 41W and 47W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward, between 20W
and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, just
offshore, along the Texas coast. Precipitation: Scattered strong
is within 160 nm to 280 nm to the east of the cold front, from
25N northward. An inland upper level trough is supporting the
cold front.

Satellite imagery, and GFS model data from 700 mb to 250 mb,
show that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a
ridge, spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico that is to the east
of the cold front.

A 28N/29N warm front is between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and
85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 60 nm to the south of the warm front
between 81W and 82W, and within 90 nm to the north of the warm
front between 80W and 84W. Isolated moderate within 60 nm to the
SSW of Lake Okeechobee in Florida.

Southerly return flow prevails across most of the Gulf of Mexico
this evening, as a cold front has moved into the Texas coastal
waters. The front will move SE and reach from near Mobile, AL to
near Tampico, Mexico early Tue, then from near Cape Coral, FL to
offshore of NE Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche early Wed,
where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE
winds are expected behind the front Tue through Wed afternoon.
Winds gradually will veer SE across the basin Thursday, in
advance of the next cold front, which is expected to reach the
Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force N winds are expected behind
this front Fri and Fri night across the western Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland, in central
Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea and sections of Central America, from 20N southward between
80W and 90W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong covers the area that is from Panama
to Honduras and Guatemala and nearby coastal waters, in the same
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A tropical wave is
along 81W/82W from 20N southward.

A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from SE Cuba toward the SE corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within a 45 nm
radius of 20N76.5W in SE Cuba. Isolated moderate elsewhere to
the north of the line from SE Cuba to the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea, in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, to 09N80W, beyond 10N86W in
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in N
Colombia and NW Venezuela, near the border of Colombia and
Panama, and in Panama from 80W westward.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 81W/82W will move westward toward Central America and
the NW Caribbean, exiting the region by mid-week. Atlantic Ocean
high pressure will strengthen across the basin, behind a
tropical wave on Saturday, and freshen the trade winds across
central sections.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W to 29N74W to 28N78W. A
28N/29N warm front is between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W
in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the
north of the front, mainly from 77W westward.

A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front curves from 32N47W, to
28N50W, and to 23N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong within 120 nm to the E and SE of the stationary
front between 50W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 21N to 23N between 60W and 64W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N32W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward between 20W and 40W. One surface trough is along
31N36W to 31N33W, to 23N34W. A second surface trough is along
26N42W 20N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong within 300 nm to the east of the 31N36W 23N34W surface
trough. isolated moderate within 120 nm to the north of the
26N42W 20N45W surface trough.

A weak cold front from 31N70W to 28N78W will shift slowly E
through the week. Another cold front will move off the coast of
N Florida on Tuesday evening. The front will become stationary
in central Florida, and N of the Bahamas by Thursday. The front
will dissipate gradually along 27N. High pressure will build
from the middle Atlantic coast SE into the area, in the wake of
this front.

$$
mt
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