[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W from
01N-15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46/47W
from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Model guidance and
satellite imagery depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near and east of the wave axis from 07N-12N
between 41W-47W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81W from
20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is depicted in
model guidance. Isolated moderate to strong convection is seen
from 08N-20N between 71W-86W. The convection from 08N-13N between
71W-77W is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. An
upper-level low near the coast of Nicaragua near 14N83W is
enhancing the convection between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
09N18W to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 07N36W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 09N39W to 08N45W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
isolated moderate convection is seen from 08N-09N between 28W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous strong convection currently occurring in the northwest
Gulf of Mexico from 25N-30N between 91W-97W accompanies a pre-
frontal surface trough. The strongest thunderstorms are currently
producing gale force wind gusts, according to at least two
elevated anemometers on oil rigs. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
west of Ft. Myers and Sarasota Florida, in association with a
weakening warm front.

A cold front currently over Texas will reach the Gulf tonight,
and move gradually southeastward, reaching from central Florida to
offshore of NE Mexico to western Bay of Campeche by Wed morning.
The front should then stall and slowly weaken through early Thu.
Strong NE winds are expected behind the front Tue through Wed
morning. Winds will gradually veer southeastward across the basin
Thu in advance of next cold front, which is expected to reach the
Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force N winds are possible behind
this front late Fri in the W Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave along 81W and the convection from 08N-20N between
71W-86W.

Isolated showers cover portions of the eastern Caribbean,
including an area of convection just east of the Lesser Antilles
from 13N-15N between 59W-61W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate trades across the basin.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 81W will move westward and reach Central America by
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N73W to
28N78W, and it becomes a dissipating stationary front to Stuart
Florida. Little to no shower activity is noted. To the east, a
central Atlantic stationary front extends from 32N47W to 27N51W
to 24N59WW. Scattered moderate showers prevail along and south of
the front, mainly from 22N-24N between 52W-62W. A pair of surface
troughs are analyzed, extending from 26N42W to 20N43W and from
31N35W to 22N36W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the second trough from 24N-31N between 30W-37W.

Weak high pressure will prevail over the W Atlantic through Wed.
A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening and
become stationary over central Florida and north of the Bahamas by
Thu. High pressure will build from the middle Atlantic coast
southeastward into the area behind the front late Wed through Fri
night.

$$
Hagen
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