[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri afternoon,
then reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat
afternoon. By Sun, the front will become stationary from the FL
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Behind this front, strong to
gale force northerly winds can be expected along the Mexican
coastal waters on Sat. Winds will diminish across the entire area
Sun night as high pressure north of the area slides eastward
through early next week. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 19N23W to
02N28W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending from
16N45W to 06N46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from
21N83W to 03N83W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in
an area of deep layer moisture and is generating a large area of
moderate convection from 08N-16N between 79W-86W.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N91W to 05N91W,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Guatemala between
89W-93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near
17N16W to 07N23W to 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to
09N44W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N49W to 09N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly west
of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary
front extends NW from near Ft Myers Florida to 27N86W. The ridging
is maintaining fair weather over the basin. The latest satellite-
derived wind data shows moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE
winds over the Gulf.

A strong cold front will enter the western Gulf Fri evening
through the weekend. Gale force winds can be expected W of the
front on Sat. See the Special Features section above for more
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave extends over the western Caribbean. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. With this, scattered to numerous moderate
convection prevails across the whole southern half of the basin. A
1009 mb surface low is centered within this convective area near
11N81W. The convection is being enhanced by an upper-level ridge
which is producing large scale upper-level divergence in the area
and by the tropical wave currently over the basin near 83W.
Atmospheric conditions across Central America are forecast to
continue very unstable, therefore the potential of copious amounts
of rainfall through the next 24-48 hours is high. The latest
ASCAT pass depicts moderate to fresh trades covering almost all of
the basin S of 17N.

A tropical wave with axis along 83W will move across
the rest of the western Caribbean through Fri morning, then
move inland over Central America Fri afternoon. Behind this wave,
fresh to strong trades and scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will prevail across the south-central Caribbean and
spread into Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Long-period north
to northeast well propagating through the central Atlantic will
gradually decay across the area Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Fri night. Broad low pres may develop across the
SW Caribbean this weekend and persist into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to 26N80W. A surface trough
extends from 27N73W to 26N76W. Scattered showers are noted along
and east of the front. To the east, a pair of 1013 mb surface highs
are analyzed near 24N72W and 29N62W. A surface trough extends in
between the highs from 28N68W to 25N67W. A 1012 mb surface low
centered north of 30N extends a trough from 30N55W to 23N57W to
20N65W. Latest scatterometer data depicts a surface low centered
near 21N44W, with trough extending from it to 18N46W. Cloudiness
and scattered showers are enhanced by an upper level low from
22N-29N between 40W-52W. Surface ridging prevails across the far
east Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 38N23W.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from near 31N66W
to 27N74W and continue as a stationary front to the Straits of
Florida by early Fri, and become nearly stationary from near
28N65W to 25N70W and continue to the Straits of Florida Sat. High
pressure will build from the southeastern U.S. behind the front,
with the resultant gradient leading to fresh northeast winds to
the northwest of the front. A large low pressure system well north
of the area will deepen through Fri and continue to generate
large northwest to north swell over much of the western Atlantic
through Sat. This swell will then begin to slowly subside later on
Sat and through Sun.

$$

ERA
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