[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The strongest cold front to reach the Gulf of Mexico so far this
fall will enter the NW Gulf late Fri afternoon, then reach from
the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon.
Minimal gale force winds can be expected along the Tamaulipas
coast of Mexico on Sat, followed by winds to minimal gale force
along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz Sat night. Elsewhere
behind this front, strong to near gale force northerly winds can
be generally expected, especially Sat and Sat night. Near gale
force northerly winds may over the waters near Veracruz into Sun,
before winds diminish across the entire area Sun night. By Sun,
the front will become stationary from the FL Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 03N27W to 19N21W,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from
14N to 18N between 18W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N45W
to 22N45W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A N to S-oriented upper-level
trough W of this wave near 50W is interacting with this feature to
produce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from
21N to 27N between 41W and 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N81W
to low pres 1008 mb near 11N81W to 20N82W, moving W at 10 to 15
kt. This wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture and is
generating a large area of scattered moderate to strong
convection from 10N to 17N between 74W and 85W.

A western Central America tropical wave has an axis extending
from 05N90W to 21N88W, from 05N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. There
is no significant convection associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 12N19W to 09N23W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from
07N34W to 09N42W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N46W to
09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 07N
between 24W and 35W and from 09N to 12N between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary
front extends NW from near Ft Myers Florida to 27N86W. The ridging
is maintaining fair weather over the basin. The latest satellite-
derived wind data shows moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE
winds over the Gulf. A relatively strong cold front for this time
of year will affect the western Gulf Fri evening through Sun
night. Gales can be expected W of the front Sat and Sat night.
See the special features section above for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is passing over the western Caribbean. See the
tropical waves section above for details.

TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. The convection is being enhanced by an
upper-level ridge which is producing large scale upper-level
divergence in the area and by the tropical wave currently over
the basin near 81W. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of Venezuela and Colombia through the end of the week.
The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades covering
almost all of the basin S of 17N.

The tropical wave near 81W will move slowly through the western
Caribbean and over Central America by Fri night. Convection
associated with this wave should move W of the Caribbean at this
time. Behind this wave, fresh to strong trades can be expected
across the Central Caribbean today and tonight. Broad low pres may
develop across the SW Caribbean this weekend and persist into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 10/1200 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N66W to 29N72W to
near West Palm Beach Florida. Cloudiness as well as scattered
moderate convection were present along and up to 150 nm N of this
boundary E of 80W. Moderate to Fresh NE winds are occurring N of
this front as well.

This front will push slowly eastward over and then E of the Bahamas
during the next few days. High pressure will build in behind the
front from the southeastern U.S., with the resultant gradient
maintaining fresh northeast winds to the northwest of the front.
Low pressure will deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast through
Fri and generate large northwest to north swell over much of the
western Atlantic. This swell will slowly subside through Mon
night.

A surface trough extends S from 1011 mb low pres centered near
31.5N54W to 24N54W to 22N58W to low pres 1012 mb near 21N63W to
20N64W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place from 23N to
28N between 48W and 50W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails over
the eastern Atlantic E of 40W, anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered close to the Azores near 39N22W.

$$
CAM
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