[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Fri afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon. Behind the front,
strong to gale force northerly winds are expected along the
Mexican coastal waters on Sat. Winds will diminish across the
area Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 19N25W to
02N29W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen where the wave axis intersects the ITCZ.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 47W
from 05N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave's axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W from
04N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in an area
of deep layer moisture. Widespread light to moderate showers with
isolated areas of moderate to strong convection prevails over the
basin south of 19N and west of 79W.

The northern end of a tropical wave along 92W is spreading showers
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The wave is moving W at 10-15
kt.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of southern Senegal
near 13N17W to 09N21W to 06N34W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from
07N40W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
120 nm of the monsoon trough between 26W-39W. Scattered showers
are also seen from 09N-13N betwen 50W-62W even though an ITCZ is
not currently analyzed in that area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid and upper-level ridging covers the western Gulf of Mexico.
Relatively dry air covers much of the basin. The northern end of
a westward moving tropical wave is producing scattered moderate
convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between
90W-92W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are from 23N-26N between
84W-87W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SE winds near
the coast of SE Louisiana north of 27N between 87W-91W.

A strong cold front will enter the western Gulf Fri afternoon
through the weekend. Gale force winds are expected W of the front
on Sat near the coast of Mexico. See the Special Features section
above for more details on the gales. By Sun, the front will
become stationary from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche.
Winds will diminish across the entire area Sun night as high
pressure north of the area slides eastward through early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave extends over the western Caribbean. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. With this, scattered moderate showers
and tstorms prevail across the whole southern half of the basin
south of 15N. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level
divergence in the area and by the tropical wave currently over the
basin near 84W. More clear conditions are present between 61W-76W
and north of 15N. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh
trades over the central Caribbean, with gentle winds over the
eastern and western portions of the basin.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is
forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next
week. Atmospheric conditions across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, Colombia and Central America are forecast to continue being
unstable through the weekend and into early next week. Therefore,
the potential for copious amounts of rainfall is high during the
time.

Long-period north to northeast swell propagating through the
central Atlantic will gradually decay across the area Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 32N64W to 27N71W to 25N77W. Isolated
moderate showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1010 mb low is
near 24N53W. The low is more pronounced in the mid and upper-
levels that it is at the surface. A surface trough extends W from
the low to 21N58W to 21N65W. Numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is seen from 19N-23N between 52W-59W,
strongest along and within 180 nm S of the trough. Isolated
moderate convection prevails elsewhere from 19N-25N between 45W-
63W and from 25N-30N between 48W-54W. Another surface trough
extends from a 1012 mb surface low near 32N55W to 28N54W. Surface
high pressure ridging prevails across the eastern subtropical
Atlantic.

A cold front in the west Atlantic will become nearly stationary on
Saturday from near 28N65W to 25N70W to the Straits of Florida.
High pressure will build from the southeastern U.S. behind the
front, with the resultant gradient leading to fresh northeast
winds to the northwest of the front. A large low pressure system
well north of the area will deepen through Fri and continue to
generate large northwest to north swell over much of the western
Atlantic through Sat. This swell will then begin to slowly subside
later on Sat and through Sun.

$$
Hagen
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