[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W.
Scattered showers are noted along and north of the ITCZ between
30W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from western Cuba near
22N84W to 29N93W. No significant showers are occurring with the
front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. High
pressure will build from the Carolinas across the eastern Gulf
through Sat, allowing fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf.
The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach
from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by Sun night, followed
by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 20N77W to 22N84W. Ahead of the front,
scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and
the Leeward Islands. To the south, the presence of the EPAC monsoon
trough is enhancing scattered showers along 11N between 73W-80W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds east of
70W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted west of 70W.

The front will stall from north of Jamaica, across Hispaniola,
and just northwest of Puerto Rico this weekend, before
dissipating. High pressure building north of the area behind the
front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds
across most of the Caribbean through late Sat, as long period
northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast
Caribbean. Winds will diminish thereafter as the high pressure
shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into
the Yucatan Channel Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N48W to 23N61W to 20N74W. Fresh to
strong winds noted in scatterometer data behind the front, mainly
between 50W-72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
front mainly north of 26N. The forecast for tonight has significant
wave heights in excess of 12 ft north of 23N between 43W-73W, in
excess of 16 ft tonight north of 26N between 48W-69W, due mostly
to large N swell. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin.

The cold front will move south and east of the region by Sat
morning. Associated large northwest to north swell will spread
across the waters east of the Bahamas through Sun evening before
subsiding into Mon. A second cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast late Sun night. Strong to possibly gale
force winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of
the Bahamas early next week.

$$

ERA
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