[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
11N16W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ between
40W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin with fair weather.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
across the whole area.

The high pressure will shift east of the area today ahead of a
cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. The front will
reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by Sun night,
followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The
front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf through Mon, as it
stalls and dissipate over the southwest Gulf. High pressure will
build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from 19N73W to 20N86W. Ahead of
the front, scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. To the south,
the presence of the EPAC monsoon trough is enhancing scattered
showers along 11N between 73W-80W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds east of 70W, while moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted west of 70W.

The front will stall from north of Jamaica, across Hispaniola,
and just northwest of Puerto Rico this weekend, before
dissipating. High pressure building north of the area
behind the front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh
easterly winds across most of the Caribbean through late today,
as long period northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in
the northeast Caribbean. Winds will diminish thereafter as the
high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front
expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 23N57W to 19N70W. Moderate to
fresh winds noted in scatterometer data behind the front, mainly
between 50W-72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
front mainly north of 25N. The forecast for tonight has
significant wave heights in excess of 12 ft north of 23N between
43W-73W, in excess of 16 ft tonight north of 26N between 48W-69W,
due mostly to large N swell. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin.

The front is stalling from north of the Leeward Islands to the
Mona passage, and will dissipate through Sun. Large, long-period
northerly swell follows the front over open waters. High pressure
will build behind the front along 28N, and shift east of the area
Sun ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast
late Sun. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side
of this front northeast of the Bahamas early next week.

$$

ERA
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