[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING has expired south of 31N...

The SW gale force winds that were occurring earlier on Friday in
the convection just ahead of the cold front over the central
Atlantic have dropped to below 34 kt south of 31N. Winds of 30-33
kt are still expected into this evening north of 29N between 42W-
50W. See Atlantic Ocean section below for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the wave axis south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 06N13W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 03N30W to 04N40W to the coast of
South America near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
across the ITCZ from 00N-11N between 28W-42W. Scattered weak to
moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N-13N between 21W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 29/2100 UTC, a weakening cold front extends from western
Cuba near 22.5N83.5W to 25N88W. A stationary front extends from
25N88W to the eastern portion of Galveston Bay Texas. No
significant showers are occurring with the front. A surface trough
is in the western Bay of Campeche from 18N95W to 23N97W. Isolated
showers and tstorms are along the trough. The ASCAT pass from
midday Friday shows moderate wind speeds across most of the basin,
with locally fresh SE winds over portions of the western Gulf off
the lower Texas coast.

The front from NW Cuba to Galveston Bay Texas will gradually
dissipate tonight. High pressure will build from the Carolinas
across the eastern Gulf through Sat, allowing fresh southerly flow
over the western Gulf. Another cold front will move off the Texas
coast late Sat, reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico
by Sun night, briefly followed by fresh to strong NW winds over
the northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the SE Caribbean Sea. See above.

As of 29/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the SE Bahamas near
21N72W to Cuba near 21N78W to western Cuba near 22.5N83.5W.
A somewhat unstable low-level atmosphere has been enough to kick
off isolated to scattered showers in the vicinity of Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands, as well as northern Hispaniola. However,
most of the Caribbean Sea north of 13N has dry mid-level air due
to mid to upper level ridging over the area. A couple of upper
level troughs south of 13N are keeping scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms in the SW Caribbean south of 13N between
74W-84W. The ASCAT pass from late Friday morning indicates fresh
NE winds across much of the basin between 74W-84W.

The cold front will cross Cuba this evening, then stall from the
Cayman Islands to Haiti this weekend, before dissipating. High
pressure building north of the area behind the front will allow
moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds across most of the
Caribbean through late Sat, as long period northerly swell reaches
the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will
diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of
another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Gale Warning over the central Atlantic has expired. See
Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N50W to 26N57W to 23N65W to the SE
Bahamas near 22N73W to western Cuba near 22N82W. Strong to near
gale force winds are occurring on both sides of the front north of
25N, and these winds are covering most of the area north of 25N
between 40W-70W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is along and within a few hundred nm ahead of the
front, north of 26N and east of 54W. CryoSat-2 altimeter data
shows seas of 12-16 ft between 28N-32N near 55W that occurred
earlier on Friday around 29/1500 UTC. The forecast for tonight has
significant wave heights in excess of 12 ft north of 23N between
43W-73W, in excess of 16 ft tonight north of 26N between 48W-69W,
due mostly to large N swell.

Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms cover the area from 19N-
26N between 40W-47W. High pressure ridging prevails north of 25N
and east of 30W.

The cold front will clear the Atlantic forecast waters west of 65W
tonight. Strong to near gale force winds behind this front south
of Bermuda will lessen west of 65W and move east tonight.
Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the
waters east of the Bahamas this evening through Sun evening
before subsiding into Mon. A second cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast late Sun night. Strong to possibly gale
force winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of
the Bahamas early next week.

$$
Hagen
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