[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front stretches across the central and western Atlantic
waters, entering the waters near 31N53W to 26N63W to 23N80W.
Minimal SW to W gale force winds are N of 30N between 52W-55W.
Seas are 12-14 ft. These gale force winds will continue through
30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving through portions
of Central America along 84W from 15N southward, moving W at 15
knots. Scattered showers are seen moving across Nicaragua and
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N30W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen across
the ITCZ from 00N-11N between 21W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pressing southward across the eastern Gulf,
entering the waters near 23N83W and stretches to the northwest
near 27N91W. A stationary front begins at 27N91W and stretches to
the southeast Texas coast near 29N95W. Showers are seen near these
boundaries but no significant convection is noted due to the
upper level high centered across the central Gulf bringing
subsidence to the area. A trough is also located in the western
Bay of Campeche, analyzed from 18N95W to 22N97W with showers and
thunderstorms within 60 nm of it. Latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict gentle winds in the eastern Gulf with
moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.

The cold front will sink south across the eastern Gulf today as
it dissipates over the NW Gulf. High pressure will build from the
Carolinas across the eastern Gulf through Saturday, allowing
fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf. Another cold front
will move off the Texas coast late Saturday, reach from near
Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night, briefly
followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The
front will stall and dissipate from the northwest Caribbean to the
southwest Gulf Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and another is
over the SW Caribbean. See above.

An upper level trough is pushing across the Lesser Antilles with
the upper level high over the Gulf extends throughout most of the
Caribbean. There is scattered moderate convection noted in the SW
basin enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N
between 75W-84W. Otherwise, showers are moving across Puerto Rico.
Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh
to strong winds north of Colombia, and moderate to fresh trades
across the central Caribbean and NW. Light to gentle winds are
seen in the eastern basin.

The cold front across the Straits of Florida will move
across Cuba today before stalling and dissipating between Haiti
and the Yucatan Channel tonight. High pressure building north of
the area behind the front will allow moderate to occasionally
fresh easterly winds across most of the Caribbean through late
Saturday, as long period northerly swell reaches the Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will diminish
thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of another
cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tuesday, then
stall over the northwest Caribbean by late Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above regarding the gale in the
central Atlantic.

A line of convection is seen along the cold front in the central
Atlantic, N of 29N and W of 50W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed
ahead of the cold front from 23N66W to 27N59W. Showers are noted
across the rest of the front and trough. A trough is off the east
coast of Florida, from 25N79W to 30N81W. An upper level trough
over the central Atlantic is pushing eastward, giving way to an
area of showers from 21N-31N between 33W-42W. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near
30N24W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds near
the front with strong winds seen across the central Atlantic N of
24N and W of 75W to the cold front.

The cold front will quickly move across the area through tonight.
Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds following the
front will shift east of the area late today. Associated large
northwest to north swell will spread across the waters east of the
Bahamas this afternoon through Sunday evening before subsiding
into Monday. A second cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast late Sunday night and quickly move across the area
through Tuesday while weakening. Strong to possibly gale force
winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of the
Bahamas early next week.


$$
AKR
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