[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Gale-force winds continue this afternoon over the SW Gulf of
Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows gales mainly south of 21N and
west of 94.5W. Near gales are south of 26N and west of 94.5W.
Gales will continue through this evening in the SW Gulf, with seas
of 10-14 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front that extends from 35N75W to a 1012 mb low near 30N80W
to Ft. Myers Florida is moving slowly eastward. Gale-force winds
will develop behind the front mainly N of 29N between 75W-80W by
Saturday. Near gale to gale force winds will move eastward on
Sunday to the area between 70W-75W. Seas are forecast to range
from 12-18 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 54W from 08N-
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave. This wave is well depicted in
scatterometer data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 10N22W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N
between 19W-27W. Another cluster of scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is seen from 02N-07N between 05W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning
currently in effect for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

As of 15/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to
23N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N91W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm either side of the cold front from
Florida through the Yucatan Channel. Strong N winds are occurring
behind the front over the Gulf. A surface trough is over the
west-central Gulf from 26N96W to 22N94W.

The cold front that extends from Ft. Myers Florida to the central
Yucatan Peninsula will move east of the basin by tonight. Strong
high pressure is building behind the cold front in the western
Gulf with gale force northerly winds offshore of Veracruz, Mexico
through today. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf
Mon, and slowly shift E-SE across the basin through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 15/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to
23N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N91W. Scattered moderate
with isolated strong convection is north of 21N between 83W-87W,
including over the Yucatan Channel. In the southwest Caribbean the
east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms southwest of a line from 10N75W to 14N83W. Mid-
upper level ridging and strong subsidence are over the eastern and
central Caribbean. ASCAT data shows light to gentle winds in the
western Caribbean, and gentle to moderate in the eastern basin.

The cold front over the SE Gulf of Mexico will move through the
Yucatan Channel late tonight, extend from Cuba to Honduras on Sat,
then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sun.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next
week over portions of Central America and western Colombia. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves
across the NW Caribbean. The tropical wave along 54W will drift
west toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 15/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low near
30N80W to near Daytona Beach to Ft. Myers Florida to the central
Yucatan Peninsula. The front also extends NE from the low to
beyond 35N75W. A recent ASCAT pass depicts the low well and shows
winds of 25-30 kt to the north and east of the low. Scattered
moderate convection is near and east of the low and east of the
cold front, north of 27N and west of 73W, including over Florida.
The low off NE Florida will deepen this weekend off South
Carolina. The associated cold front will extend from 30N70W to
eastern Cuba on Sun. Gale force winds are expected this weekend
over the northern waters W of 70W. See section above for details
on the Gale Warning. Marine conditions will improve across the
region Sun night and Mon.

A surface trough is along 60W from 23N-28N. A N-S oriented upper-
level trough is along 56W. Scattered moderate convection is near
the upper-trough from 22N-30N between 54W-57W. Surface high
pressure ridging prevails over the E Atlantic. Winds near 30 kt
along with seas over 12 ft are affecting the far E Atlantic from
the Canary Islands to the coast of Morocco.

$$
ZACHRY/HAGEN
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