[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1008 mb
low near 32N77W to south Florida near 26N80W and along the Florida
Keys to NW Cuba near 23N82W. Gale- force winds will develop west
the front mainly N of 29N between 75W-80W by Saturday evening.
These gale- force winds are expected to continue through Sunday
evening with seas ranging 11-19 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W S of 22N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is currently
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/Guinea-Bissau
near 12N17W to 05N26W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W
to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along
and south of the monsoon trough from 04N-11N between 14W-22W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the monsoon
trough from 01N-09N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

With the cold front exiting the Gulf and pushing across the
western Atlantic, high pressure is building in across the western
Gulf with dry air filling in. Showers are still lingering across
the eastern Gulf near the Florida coast, from the Tampa Bay coast
down to the Keys, with the rest of the basin experiencing fair
weather. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds across the Gulf.

Winds and seas will diminish over the basin through Saturday as
the cold front moves SE of the area. High pressure will prevail
across the region through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front continues to press southward across the NW
Caribbean, extending from SW Cuba near 22N84W to the Yucatan near
19N88W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving ahead of
the front from 16N-21N between 81W-86W. Convection is also noted
in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough, mostly S of 11N between 75W-81W. Scattered showers
are moving across Puerto Rico eastward through the Lesser
Antilles. A strong mid-level ridge is present across the eastern
portion of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds
north of Colombia.

The cold front will extend from Cuba to Honduras on Saturday,
then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves
across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the
Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information in regards
to the developing gale in the western Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the cold
front from 28N-31N between 71W-78W. Scattered showers are also
noted across the northern Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, a
mid-level low is noted near 17N50W and extends southward into
Suriname/French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection associated
with this low is observed from 14N-24N between 44W-55W. An upper
level trough extends E-W off the eastern African coast, mostly
along western Sahara and Mauritania. This is bringing scattered
showers across Senegal and Mauritania in addition to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the rest of
the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1032 mb high near 38N29W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh WNW winds
filling in behind the front off the Florida coast, N of 27N and W
of 79W.

Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern
waters W of 70W as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast
of South Carolina. The cold front will extend from 30N70W to
eastern Cuba by Sunday. Marine conditions will improve across the
region Sunday night and Monday.

$$

AKR
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