[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 25N96W. A cold front
extends from 30N83W to the low to 19N95W. The front/low will move
SE across the basin today. In the wake of the front, gale-force
winds are forecast over the SW Gulf this morning from 19N-21N and
west of 95W, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft. These conditions
will continue through tonight. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the western Atlantic this weekend.
Gale-force winds will develop behind the front mainly N of 29N by
Saturday. Gale-force winds are forecast with seas ranging around
8-11 feet. These conditions are forecast to continue through
Sunday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 08N-
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave. This wave is well depicted in
scatterometer data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 11N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N46W.
Scattered showers are noted within 125 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 18W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning
currently in effect.

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 25N96W. A cold front
extends from 30N83W to the low to 19N95W. Abundant cloudiness and
scattered showers are noted along the front. To the southeast, a
1015 mb low is centered near 28N84W, and its associated stationary
front extends from that point to 24N85W to 19N93W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front from
22N-27N and east of 89W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh winds across most of the basin, except west of 95W where
fresh to strong northerly winds are noted.

Low pressure west of Tampa near 28N84W will merge with a cold
front across the northern Gulf today and move NE across northern
Florida. Strong high pressure building behind the cold front in
the western Gulf will induce gale force northerly winds W of the
front offshore of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Another cold
front will move into the western Gulf Mon, and slowly shift E-SE
across the basin through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers over the NW Caribbean and eastern Yucatan
Peninsula mainly north of 20N between 85W-88W due to the
proximity of the stationary front in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Scattered showers over the SW Caribbean and over land
from N Colombia to Costa Rica are due to the east Pacific monsoon
trough. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades
across the basin.

A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
late tonight, extend from Cuba to Honduras on Sat, then stall and
weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sun. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW
Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Lesser
Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning in
effect for the west Atlantic and the tropical wave moving across
the basin.

A frontal system extends across the west-central Atlantic,
analyzed as a cold front from 31N55W to 28N61W, then transitions
to a stationary front from that point to 27N71W. The front becomes
weak from 27N71W to 28N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and
north of the fronts mainly west of 72W. A surface trough extends
from 27N57W to 23N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along and east of the trough between 54W-58W. Another surface
trough extends from 24N73W to 21N75W with no significant
convection at this time. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered
well north of the area.

A low pressure area moving off the NE Florida coast
today will deepen this weekend off South Carolina. It will drag a
cold front through area, to extend from 30N70W to eastern Cuba
on Sun. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the
northern waters W of 70W. Marine conditions will improve across
the region Sun night and Mon.

$$

ERA
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