[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1754 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front enters the basin from 25N81W to 21N88W into
the Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts gale-force
winds south of 22N and west of 94W, while fresh to strong winds
are noted elsewhere over the western Gulf west of 88W. Seas in
the west Gulf are ranging between 15-20 ft. These conditions will
continue through early this morning as the front moves away from
the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends from 31N70W to 25N80W. Gale-force N
winds are noted behind the front north of 28N and west of 75W.
These conditions will continue through this afternoon following
the front as it moves east, with seas will quickly building to
near 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 47W from 19N southward
is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N-14N between 43W-49W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Drier air is present near the
wave, limiting convection mainly over the Caribbean. The southern
portion of the wave is interacting with the EPAC's monsoon trough
with scattered moderate convection. The wave is identifiable
primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb surface low near 10N14W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N30W to 04N43W.
In addition to the convection related to the tropical wave mentioned
above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N-08N
between 16W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A strong cold front extends across the basin from 25N81W to
21N88W with a 1032 mb high pressure building across the NW
Gulf. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Aside
from the area of gale-force winds over the southwest, scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong winds across most of the basin.

A cold front extending from near Sarasota, Florida to the NW tip
of the Yucatan Peninsula then across the eastern Bay of Campeche
early this morning will slow down and stall near the far SE
portions of the Gulf today into tonight, then dissipate Thu. Gale
force winds and high seas will continue across the SW Gulf this
morning before decreasing some this afternoon. Another weaker cold
front will move into the Gulf Thu, then clear the basin Fri.
Before does, weak low pressure could form Thu night or early Fri
over the northeast Gulf. In the wake of this front, gale force
winds are likely over portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from
18N84W to 16N88W. Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean
along the Yucatan Channel south to the Gulf of Honduras. Dry air
and subsidence cover most of the remainder of the basin. Trades
are moderate in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in
the western basin.

A cold front will stall from the Yucatan Peninsula ENE across the
Straits of Florida this afternoon and evening, then begin to
drift northward and dissipate tonight. Another cold front will
move into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, gradually stalling after
reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. Fresh to strong N winds
will follow this front as it moves across the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to
generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic
as well as Caribbean passages Fri into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 22N73W. To the east, a
weakening stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends
from 31N70W to 25N79W. Scattered showers are occurring well east
of the front from 25N-31N between 63W-67W in association to an
upper-level diffluent flow in the area. Surface ridging prevails
across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high
centered near 43N32W. An area of showers is near the Canary
Islands from 23N-31N between 15W-28W.

A cold front from near 31N70W to near Miami, FL late this morning
will reach from Bermuda to central Bahamas to Florida Straits by
this evening, then stall and begin to drift northward as it
gradually dissipates Thu. Brief gale force winds are expected
immediately behind the front across the far northern waters this
morning are shifting NE of the are, while strong to near gale
force winds will prevail west of the front through tonight. Winds
will diminish Thu and seas will decay by Fri. Low pressure is
forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Fri and move NE
through the far NW basin into Sat. This low will drag another cold
front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder of the
upcoming weekend.

$$
MMTorres
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