[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the Gulf Thursday, then move SE and clear
the basin Fri. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are
forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W from 19N southward
is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N-20N between 42W-51W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are present near the wave axis in the SW Caribbean, and
over land between N Colombia and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from there to 05N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 01N-08N between 16W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 13/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Keys near
25N81W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W to western Guatemala
near 16N91W. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 18N93W
to 26N97W. ASCAT from late Wed morning showed near gale NW winds
west of the surface trough and south of 22N. Fresh to strong NE
winds are over the southern Gulf to the north of the front, with
moderate winds over the NW Gulf. Scattered light to moderate
showers are over the NW and west-central Gulf. Isolated showers
are near the Florida Keys and South Florida. A 1027 mb high is
centered over the Texas/Mexico border near 27N99W.

The front from near Florida Bay to the N central Yucatan Peninsula
will become stationary this evening, then begin to drift NW-N and
gradually dissipate Thu. A weaker cold front will move into the
Gulf Thu, then move SE and clear the basin Fri. Weak low pressure
is expected to form Thu night or early Fri over the NE Gulf and
move slowly NE. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are
forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday, where a Gale
Warning is in effect. Yet another cold front may move into the
western Gulf late Sun through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern
Yucatan Peninsula from 16N-21N between 84W-90W are due to the
combination of a surface trough over the NW Caribbean and a cold
front that extends over the far SE Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula.
Mid to upper-level anti-cyclonic flow covers the western
Caribbean. Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and
central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the
far SW Caribbean and over land from N Colombia to Nicaragua are
due to the east Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave along
83W. ASCAT from Wed morning showed gentle to moderate trades
across the basin.

A cold front just NW of the Yucatan Channel will become stationary
this evening, then begin to drift NW-N and gradually dissipate
Thu. Another cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late
Fri, gradually stalling after reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua
Sun. The remnants of the front will linger roughly along 80W for
the start of next week. The front is forecast to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend.
Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next cold front as it
moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pres gradient
across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. N
swell will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri
through the weekend and into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 13/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N66W to 29N71W to
26N77W to Key Largo Florida to 23N85W. Northwest of the cold
front, strong to near gale N to NE winds extend to beyond 32N and
to near the east coast of Florida. The front will become
stationary tonight, then begin to drift northward as it dissipates
Thu. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and large seas will
prevail behind the front through tonight, diminishing Thu.

A surface trough extends from 25N70W to 30N67W. Upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-32N
between 58W-66W. An upper-level trough is inducing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms from 21N-29N between 50W-57W. A weak
upper-level low near 27N26W is producing scattered moderate
rainshowers from 24N-31N between 12W-22W, including over the
Canary Islands.

Low pressure is forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Fri
and move NE through the far NW basin into Sat. This low will drag
another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder
of the upcoming weekend. Gale force winds are possible across the
northern waters W of 70W Sat night and Sun, with conditions in
the wake of the front improving Mon. An elongated area of low
pressure may move into the waters to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands for the start of next week.

$$
Hagen
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