[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to
23N87W to 19N93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force
winds south of 21N and west of 94W, while fresh to strong winds
are noted elsewhere over the western Gulf. Seas in the west Gulf
are ranging between 15-20 ft. These conditions will continue
through early this morning as the front moves away from the area.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Gale-force N
winds are noted behind the front north of 27N and west of 76W.
These conditions will continue through this afternoon following
the front as it moves east, with seas will quickly building to
near 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 20N southward
is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the wave axis. There is a large area of scattered moderate
convection east of the wave, mainly enhanced by upper-level
divergence produced by an upper-level trough in the area.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from
18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Drier air is present near the
wave, limiting convection mainly over the Caribbean. The southern
portion of the wave is interacting with the EPAC's monsoon trough
with scattered moderate convection. The wave is identifiable
primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb surface low near 12N14W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to a1007 mb surface
low near 05N28W to 04N43W. In addition to the convection related
to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 02N-10N between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A strong cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to
23N87W to 19N93W. Aside from the area of gale-force winds over
the southwest, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds
across most of the basin except south of 27N and east of 84W,
where light to gentle winds prevail.

The front will slow down and stall near the far SE portions of
the Gulf today into tonight, then dissipate Thu. Gale force winds
and high seas will continue across the SW Gulf this morning before
decreasing some this afternoon. Another weaker cold front will
move into the Gulf Thu, then clear the basin Fri. Before does,
weak low pressure could form Thu night or early Fri over the
northeast Gulf. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are
likely over portions of the SW Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from
19N80W to 18N88W. Scattered showers are noted in the NW
Caribbean, mainly north of 17N and west of 83W. Dry air and
subsidence cover most of the remainder of the basin. Trades are
moderate in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in the
western basin.

The cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel this
afternoon, then dissipate tonight. Another cold front will move
into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, gradually stalling after
reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. Fresh to strong N winds
may follow this front. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across
the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell
will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri into
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 22N73W. To the east, a
stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from
32N60W to 27N64W. A surface trough extends from that point to
25N68W. Scattered showers are occurring well east of the front
from 23N-31N between 50W-58W in association to an upper-level
diffluent flow in the area. Surface ridging prevails across the
reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near
37N36W.

The cold front will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas to
Florida Straits line by this evening, then stall and dissipate on
Thu. Gale force winds are expected offshore the northeast coast of
Florida early this morning, with strong to near gale force winds
prevailing elsewhere north and west of the front through tonight.
Winds will diminish Thu and seas will decay by Fri. Low pressure
is forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Fri and move NE
through the far NW basin into Sat. This low will drag another cold
front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder of the
upcoming weekend.

$$

ERA
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