[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 24N89W
to 18N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds
south of 21N and west of 94W, while fresh to strong winds are
noted elsewhere except south of 27N and east of 84W. Seas in the
west Gulf are ranging between 12-19 ft. These conditions will
continue through early this morning as the front moves away from
the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends from 31N78W to 29N81W. Gale-force N
winds are noted behind the front at this time. These conditions
will continue through early Wed, before slowly diminishing. Seas
will quickly build to near 15 ft by early Wed. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the 1033 mb Azores high at
36N34W and a surface trough over NW Africa is producing gale-
force N to NE winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir of Meteo France. In the Canarias and in Tarfaya, winds have
diminished to near 30 kt. The gales in Agadir are expected to
persist until 13/0300 UTC before diminishing below gale force,
according to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 19N southward
is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the wave axis. There is a large area of scattered moderate
convection east of the wave, mainly enhanced by upper-level
divergence produced by an upper-level trough in the area.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81W from
18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present near the
wave, limiting convection mainly over the Caribbean. The southern
portion of the wave is interacting with the EPAC's monsoon trough
with scattered moderate convection. The wave is identifiable
primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
07N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N42W. In addition
to the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-10N between
23W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A strong cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 24N89W
to 18N94W. Aside from the area of gale-force winds over the
southwest, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across
most of the basin except south of 27N and east of 84W, where light
to gentle winds prevail.

The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to the N central
Yucatan Peninsula Wed afternoon, gradually washing out through
Wed night. Gale force winds and high seas in the W central and SW
Gulf will linger through Wed morning. A reinforcing cold front
will move into the Gulf Thu and merge with the remnants of the old
boundary, followed by strong winds and high seas, possibly
reaching gale force offshore of Veracruz Fri. That front will
clear the basin Fri night with winds and seas diminishing during
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from Jamaica to Cancun. Scattered
showers are noted in the NW Caribbean, mainly north of 17N and
west of 78W. Dry air and subsidence cover most of the remainder
of the basin. Trades are moderate in the eastern and central
Caribbean, and gentle in the western basin.

The cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon
and evening with hazardous winds and seas near the Channel. A
stronger cold front will move SE of the Yucatan Channel Fri night,
stalling from eastern Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua Sun.
Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to
generally moderate tradewinds over most of the basin. NE swell
will impact Atlc/Caribbean passages Fri into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 22N73W. To the east, a
stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
1015 mb low near 40N59W southwestward to 32N60W to 26N65W. A
surface trough extends from that point to 26N69W. Scattered
showers are occurring well east of the front from 24N-31N between
50W-58W in association to an upper-level diffluent flow in the
area. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the basin,
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 37N36W.

The cold front will reach and stall from near Bermuda SW across
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Wed. Gale force winds will
follow this cold front off the NE coast of Florida tonight, and
shift eastward across the northern waters W of 72W through Wed
morning. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas will
prevail NW of the boundary through Thu. As the front dissipates
by late this week, winds and seas will diminish. Low pres is
expected to develop along the old frontal remnants off the NE
Florida and Georgia coasts Fri and drift NE, with potential for
gales by Sat. This low will drag another cold front across the
basin W of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$

ERA
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