[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 12/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends over the Gulf from
The Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 22N92W to 18N94W. Veracruz
Mexico recently recorded winds of 30 kt with gusts of 40 kt. The
12/1545 UTC scatterometer pass showed peak winds of 40-45 kt from
the north to the east of Tampico. Buoy 42055, located near 22.1N
93.9W, reported seas of 18 ft at 12/2140 UTC. Gale force winds and
high seas will continue overnight and into early Wed over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz as the front
continues eastward. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends from 32N79W to near Jacksonville
Florida as of 12/2100 UTC. The front will extend from 31N76W to
Vero Beach, FL by late tonight. Gale force N winds are anticipated
behind the front from late tonight through early Wed, before
slowly diminishing. Seas will quickly build to near 15 ft by early
Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the 1030 mb Azores high at
36N34W and a surface trough over NW Africa is producing gale-
force N to NE winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir of Meteo France. In the Canarias and in Tarfaya, winds have
diminished to near 30 kt. The gales in Agadir are expected to
persist until 13/0300 UTC before diminishing below gale force,
according to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 19N southward
is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 03N to 15N between 34W and 41W. This convection is
being enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by a vigorous
upper-level trough west of the wave. The wave has a well-defined
surface trough and is the combination of a true African easterly
wave and the upper-level trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 62W from
20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Drier air seen in the total
precipitable water imagery is noted in the waves environment,
limiting convection at this time. The wave is primarily observed
from the GFS-based trough diagnostics, with little surface
component noted.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along
78/79W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is
present near the wave, limiting convection. The wave is
identifiable primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
07N19W. The ITCZ continues from there to 06N41W. In addition to
the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 03N to 08N between 25W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A surface trough over the NW Caribbean is inducing scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel.

The strong cold front will continue to race SE, clearing the
basin early Wed. Gale force winds and high seas will linger over
the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz through early Wed.
Another cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, followed by strong
winds and high seas, possibly reaching gale force offshore of
Veracruz Fri. That front will clear the basin Fri night with
winds and seas diminishing during the weekend. Yet another cold
front may move into the western Gulf late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from Jamaica to Cancun. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean, mainly
north of 20N and west of 81.5W. Dry air and subsidence cover most
of the remainder of the basin. Trades are moderate in the eastern
and central Caribbean, and gentle in the western basin.

A cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon
and evening with hazardous winds and seas near the Channel. A
stronger cold front will move SE of the Yucatan Channel Fri night,
stalling from eastern Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua Sun.
Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to
generally moderate tradewinds over most of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
1017 mb low near 33N60W southwestward to 26N65W to 26N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring well E of the front
from 23N to 31N between 55W and 61W. Winds in association with
the front are only gentle to moderate. Surface ridging prevails
across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 36N34W.

The cold front from 32N79W to Jacksonville to 24N90W will reach
from SE of Bermuda across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
on Wednesday before stalling. Gale force winds will follow this
cold front off the NE coast of Florida tonight, and shift eastward
across the northern waters W of 72W through Wed morning. Strong
to near gale force winds and high seas will prevail NW of the
boundary through Thu. As the front dissipates late week, winds and
seas will also diminish. Low pres is expected to develop along
the old frontal remnants off the NE Florida and Georgia coasts Fri
and drift NE, with potential for gales by Sat. This low will drag
another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder
of the upcoming weekend.

$$
Hagen
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