[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 1500 UT85 a strong cold front extends over the northwest
Gulf from the Florida panhandle near Veracruz. Several oil
platforms - including KBBF, KEMK, KEIR, and KGHB - are indicating
elevated gale force winds in the NW Gulf. The 1545 UTC
scatterometer pass just arriving showed peak winds of 40-45 kt
north winds east of Tampico. Buoy 42002's seas have quickly risen
to about 13 ft in the same area. As the front continues moving
southeast, gale force winds and building seas will be following
the frontal passage, and these conditions will spread southward
through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche and
offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic this evening
and extend from 31N76W to Vero Beach, FL by late tonight. Gale
force N winds are anticipated behind the front from late tonight
through early Wed, before slowly diminishing. Seas will quickly
build to near 15 ft by early Wed.  See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the 1033 mb Azores high at
36N33W and a surface trough over NW Africa is producing gale-
force N winds over the Canarias, Tarfaya and Agadir marine areas
of MeteoFrance. These conditions are expected through early Wed
before diminishing. For more details, refer to the MeteoFrance
High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42W and from 19N
southward, is moving W around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 05N to 15N between 33W and 40W. This
convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by
a vigorous upper-level trough west of the wave. The wave has a
well-defined surface trough and is the combination of a true
African easterly wave and the upper-level trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from
19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Drier air seen in the total
precipitable water imagery is noted in the wave environment,
limiting convection at this time. The wave is primarily observed
from the GFS-based trough diagnostics, with little surface
component noted.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W from
19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is also present
near the wave limiting convection. The wave is identifiable
primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from there to 06N40W. In addition to
the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 03N to 07N between 25W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends over the northwest
Gulf from the Florida panhandle near Veracruz. Scatterometer,
ship, and buoy data depicts gentle to moderate winds southeast of
the front, while near gale and gale N winds are occurring
northwest of the front. While no significant deep convection is
observed in connection with the front, substantial shallow shower
activity is noted from WSR-88D radar near southern Texas and the
Florida peninsula.

A strong cold front extending from central Florida Panhandle to
just S of Tuxpan Mexico will race to the SE Gulf by this evening,
and clear the basin early Wed. Gale force winds and high seas will
spread southward through the W Gulf today, then linger over the
Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed.
Strong winds Wed will diminish to fresh as high pressure behind
the front lifts to the NE. Another cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Thu, followed by strong winds and high seas over the SW
Gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front north of the Caribbean is contributing toward a
weak north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean. As a
result, tradewinds are generally gentle to moderate with fresh
conditions just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection
is present over the Caribbean today, as subsident high pressure
aloft prevails.

A weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally
moderate tradewinds over most of the basin. A strong cold front
will stall across the Yucatan Channel Wed evening and produce N to
NE winds across the NW Caribbean ahead of it.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
1018 mb low near 32N55W southwestward to 26N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 27N to 32N between 55W and
60W. Winds in association with the front are only gentle to
moderate. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the
basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 36N33W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast this afternoon, then
begin to stall as it passes Bermuda and stretches SW across the
Bahamas and Florida Straits on Wed. Gale force winds will follow
this cold front off the northeast coast of Florida tonight, and
shift eastward across the northern waters W of 72W through Wed
morning. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas will
prevail NW of the boundary through Thu. As the front dissipates
late week, winds and seas will also diminish. Low pres is expected
to develop along the old frontal remnants off the NE Florida and
Georgia coasts Fri and drift NE, with potential for gales by Sat.

$$
Landsea
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