[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends over the northwest Gulf from 30N92W
to beyond 24N98W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force
winds already occurring north of the front, mainly west of 95W. As
the front continues moving southeast, gale force winds and
building seas will be following the frontal passage, and these
conditions will spread southward through the W Gulf today, then
linger over the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and
early Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic this evening
and extend from 31N75W to 27N80W. Frequent gusts to gale-force is
forecast NW of front with seas 9-12 ft. Conditions will persist
until Wednesday evening, as the front moves E. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the 1031 mb Azores high at
37N31W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale-force
N winds over the Canarias, Tarfaya and Agadir marine areas of
MeteoFrance. Scatterometer winds also depicts winds of 35-40 kt
near 30N10W. These conditions are expected through early Wed. For
more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42W and from 19N
southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails east of the wave axis from 02N-15N between 30W-42W. This
convection is being enhanced by upper level diffluence, and an
upper level jetstream.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W
from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is noted in
the wave environment limiting convection at this time.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 76W from
17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is also present near
the wave limiting convection. The wave is identifiable from the
700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 03N40W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
no significant convection is noted along the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front extends from 30N92W to beyond 24N98W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across
the eastern half of the basin, while light to gentle winds are
noted over the western half, mainly south of the front.

The front will race to the SE Gulf by this evening, and clear the basin
early Wed. Gale force winds and building seas are following the
frontal passage, and these conditions will spread southward
through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche
and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. Strong winds Wed
will diminish to fresh as the high pressure forcing the front
south lifts to the north and east. The next cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Thu, followed by strong winds and high seas over
the SW Gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic through the Windward
Passage. Scattered moderate convection is prevailing over the SW
Caribbean south of 10N due to the EPAC monsoon trough.
Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate
tradewinds prevail over the west Caribbean, while moderate
easterly winds prevail over the eastern half of the basin.

Several weak tropical waves will traverse the
Carribbean this week with little influence on the weather. Weak
pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally
moderate winds. Northeasterly swell may impact Atlantic waters Fri
into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
1018 mb low near 34N56W southwestward to 25N63W. A surface trough
extends from that point to 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from
14N49W to 10N50W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails
across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high
centered near 37N31W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast this
afternoon, then begin to stall as it passes Bermuda and
stretches SW across the Bahamas and Florida Straits on Wed.
Behind the front, gale force winds will follow this front off the
northeast coast of Florida tonight, with strong to near gale
force winds along with higher seas expected through Wed night
north and west of the boundary. As the front dissipates late week,
winds and seas will also diminish.

$$

ERA
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