[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front has entered the northwest Gulf this evening,
extending from 29N95W to beyond 28N97W. As the front continues
moving southeast, gale-force N winds are expected behind it
starting by 12/06 UTC mainly north of 25N and west of 92W. These
conditions will spread across the western Gulf following the
front through early Thursday. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic Tuesday
evening and extend from 31N75W to 27N80W. Frequent gusts to gale-
force is forecast NW of front with seas 9-12 ft. Conditions will
persist until Wednesday evening, as the front moves E. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A large pressure gradient between the 1035 mb Azores high at
36N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale force
N winds over the Tarfaya marine area of MeteoFrance.
Scatterometer winds show winds of 35-40 kt near 30N10W. These
gale conditions are expected through early Wed. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 41W and from 16N
southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N-15N between 38W-43W. This convection is being
enhanced by upper level diffluence, and an upper level jetstream.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W
from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in
the vicinity of the wave limiting the convection at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in the
central Caribbean near the wave limiting convection. The wave is
identifiable from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 09N40W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N42W to the coast of
Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N-11N between 28W-38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf, extending from 29N95W
to beyond 28N97W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevailing across the eastern half of the basin,
while light to gentle winds are noted over the western half,
mainly south of the front.

The front will move southeastward through all but the southeast
Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly
winds and large seas will follow the frontal passage, beginning
across the NW Gulf overnight, spreading strong gale force winds
southward across much of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche Tue
into early Wed, before diminishing late this week. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the northern and western Gulf by Thu
night, extending from near Tampa, Florida to 25N90W and to near
Tampico, Mexico early on Fri and to southeast of the area on Sat.
Strong northerly winds behind this front will diminish to mainly
fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf and to light to
gentle northerly winds over the NW Gulf Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from western Hispaniola to the NE coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and within 120 nm north of it. Scattered moderate
convection is also prevailing over the SW Caribbean south of 11N
due to the EPAC monsoon trough. Scatterometer and buoy
observations indicate gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail south
of the front and fresh NE winds north of the front.

The trough will gradually dissipate today. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will maintain a modest pressure gradient across
the basin through the remainder of the week. A strong Gulf of
Mexico cold front will become stationary across the Yucatan
Channel Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
1020 mb low near 36N53W southwestward to 24N64W. A surface trough
extends from that point to 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm on either sides of the front. Surface ridging
prevails across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered near 37N27W.

Strong NE winds to the northwest of the central Atlantic front
will gradually decrease by Tue. High pressure to the north of the
front will move quickly east tonight, allowing for the next cold
front to exit the SE U.S. coast by Tue evening, then reach from
Bermuda to NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits by Wed night. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected Tue evening to Wed evening west
of the front. The front will then weaken and eventually dissipate
through Fri.

$$

ERA
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