[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then
move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night,
and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale-force N winds are forecast behind
the front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wed
morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

Atlantic Gale Warning west of 68W...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic Tue evening
and extend from 31N75W to 27N80W. Frequent gusts to gale force is
forecast NW of front with seas 9-12 ft. Conditions will persist
until Wed evening, as the front moves E.

Atlantic Gale Warning east of 35W...

A large pressure gradient between the 1035 mb Azores high at
36N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale force
N winds over the Tarfaya marine area of MeteoFrance.
Scatterometer winds show winds of 35-40 kt near 30N10W. These
gale conditions are expected through early Wed. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 16N southward, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over a large area from 02N-16N between 27W-46W. This convection is
also being enhanced by upper level diffluence, and an upper level
jetstream.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in the
vicinity of the wave limiting the convection along its axis. A
scatterometer pass indicated surface troughing associated with
the wave south of about 12N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Drier air is present in the central
Caribbean near the wave limiting convection. The wave is
identifiable from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Isolated moderate
convection is inland over Hispaniola, E Cuba, NW Venezuela, and N
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 09N38W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N42W to the coast of
Guyana near 06N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland
over W Africa from 07N-11N between 08W-12W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak northwest-southeast pressure gradient over the Gulf of
Mexico is producing gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf
this morning. No significant deep convection is occurring over the
area currently.

A strong arctic cold front will reach the Texas coast this
evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast
Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly
winds and large seas will follow the frontal passage, beginning
across the NW Gulf overnight, spreading strong gales southward
through much of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche Tue into
early Wed, before decreasing for the latter half of the week. The
next front is forecast to enter the the Gulf by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to NE coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate
convection is also in the SW Caribbean south of 11N.
Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate
tradewinds south of the front and fresh NE winds north of the
front.

The trough will gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure
over the western Atlantic will maintain a modest pressure gradient
across the basin through the remainder of the week. A strong Gulf
of Mexico cold front will become stationary across the Yucatan
Channel Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A quasi-stationary front over the central Atlantic extends from a
1017 mb low near 34N54W southwestward to 30N57W, where it
transitions to a stationary front reaching to 23N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. A 1033 mb
Azores high is centered near 38N28W. A moderate pressure gradient
south of the high is forcing moderate to strong NE tradewinds.

Strong NE winds to the northwest of the central Atlantic front
will gradually decrease by Tue. High pressure to the north of the
front will move quickly east tonight, allowing for another strong
cold front to exit the SE U.S. coast Tue evening, then reach from
Bermuda to NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits by Wed night. The
front will then weaken and eventually dissipate through Fri.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected Tue evening to Wed
evening west of the new front.

$$
Formosa
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